© 2019 Terry Swails

IT WASN'T MEANT TO BE, HERE'S WHY...

February 25, 2020

CHESTNUT MOUNTAIN'S 60TH ANNIVERSARY CELEBRATION THIS SATURDAY

This Saturday is the 60th Anniversary Celebration at Chestnut Mountain Resort In Galena. If you are looking for some family fun like me...put it on your to do list right now. During the day the Big Nut Open Ski and Snowboard Competition is going on with some of the best talent in the Midwest participating. The fires will be lit and the food and drinks flowing inside the resort. At night live entertainment is planned with Bowman Pickney and Evans providing the music from 8-11pm. Top that off with the Torchlight Parade and Fireworks over the mountain at 10pm. and you've got yourself a top notch winter day. I plan to be a part of it with some live remotes and videos. I hope to see you on the slopes this Saturday at Chestnut Mountain, the Midwest's Premier Year Round Resort!

 

TUESDAY'S FEATURED POST

 

After all the buzz and anticipation of a potential snowstorm the past few days, what we'll see of it in my local area will be next to nothing compared to what it could have been. Phasing once again was the culprit in its demise. A lead shortwave with a jet steak around 150 kts was just too powerful to be absorbed into the northern stream energy dropping in from the northern Rockies. That allowed a slower merger of the 2 systems. Without the proper energy structure the forcing and moisture was unable to get established this far north to produce sustained snow. You have no idea how complicated this process is and how close we came to getting a real ripper. I'm pretty torn up about the miss. It wasn't meant to be!

Here's even more bad news for you snow lovers down south. With this lack of phasing and such pronounced dry air, the storm continues to evolve on more of a southerly track and that means the far southeast is now looking at little if any snow. The EURO didn't see that until this afternoon. That means the NWS is again going to have to drop the advisories and alter its snowfall projections. Here's what they currently show for advisories Monday night. Tough to keep up!

These are the current snowfall forecasts. Not in a million years.

Now take a look at the latest models. The EURO

The GFS

The 12 NAM

The 3K NAM

The one inch line is now running near and south of a line from roughly Keokuk to Princeton, Illinois. That means a lot of those winter weather advisories in far SE Iowa and WC Illinois are likely to be dropped by the time we all get up Tuesday morning. Most of my area is going to walk away with little to nothing in the way of snow. Phasing is great when it works on your behalf but when it goes wrong, everything goes to heck.

 

To show you how that's impacted this system, take a look at the 3k NAM tonight VS 18 hours earlier. On the left is tonight (no snow shown in Moline) on the right is the 6Z run 18 hours previous. (20" in Moline) That's where the EURO was light years ahead when it showed only 2"

 

Now that winds will turn brisk out of the NE temperatures will be cooler the rest of the week. However, the fact we don't have 6-12" of snow on the ground will keep us a good 5-10 degrees warmer than we would have been. The next system to watch is a little clipper that could bring a dusting Thursday night or Friday. We'll focus in on that more in the next 24 hours. For now, I need some rest. Roll weather everybody.

 

PLEASE JOIN US FOR A NEW EDITION OF WEATHER SCHOOL. SEVERE WEATHER 101. We have a great program planned. Click for more details on the box below!

 

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