© 2019 Terry Swails

A SATURDAY IN THE PARK...

March 7, 2020

COME ON AMIGO'S...

 

WE STILL HAVE OPEN SPOTS FOR A BRAND NEW WEATHER SCHOOL...SEVERE WEATHER 101. THIS WILL BE A FANTASTIC CHANCE TO SEE AND LEARN ABOUT THE THE STRONGEST STORMS ON EARTH. IT'S A ROBUST SESSION FEATURING INTERACTIVE SIMULATIONS AND HEART THUMPING VIDEOS! The 50 PEOPLE THAT ATTENDED OUR LAST CLASS BACK IN JANUARY RATED THE SESSION 9.8 OUT OF A POSSIBLE 10. IT'S A DEEP DOSE OF WEATHER! SO LET'S GO GUYS, GET IN THE GAME UP CLOSE AND PERSONAL. MORE SPECIFICS BELOW.

 

We are pleased to announce that we are offering a new edition of Weather School called Severe Weather 101 for Saturday April 4th. We have devoted the entire afternoon to the formation of severe storms with a strong emphasis on tornadoes. We'll do some simulations and take you inside several classic historic tornado outbreaks that have impacted Iowa and Illinois. I think you'll be really pleased with the sessions. We hope you can join us for all things severe weather! For all the details click on the banner below or contact Carolynswettston@yahoo.com

TODAY'S FEATURE POST...SATURDAY IN THE PARK!

 

When you see an upper air pattern that looks like this on the weekend (especially in early March) you jump for joy. The troughs and bad weather are on the east and west coasts and a nice little ridge is parked right in the middle. That's where you wanna be...Saturday in the park!

Regarding temperatures, with abundant sunshine Saturday should see highs rapidly warm to around 60

Sunday should be even better. With a much warmer start highs should approach 65 in a lot of spots. I think several degrees warmer than what the guidance shows below.

One of the key factors in any warm-up is the dryness of the air. Saturday will see very low humidity levels in the afternoon when readings could be under 30 percent from western Illinois into much of Iowa.

 

The only fly in the ointment are winds and a resultant fire risk. SW breezes could gust as high as 30 mph, the price you pay for warmth in March.Throw in the dry air, warm temperatures, and plenty of dead vegetation and outside burning gets a little risky this time of year. Be careful! These are the projected wind gusts.

The next weather maker for the area arrives Sunday night and Monday in the form a cold front and attendant wave of low pressure. By the time it enters the region moisture levels will dramatically increase by up to an inch from where the stand on Saturday. The GFS has this for available water vapor Monday.

Levels like that are about 3 standard deviations above normal. In other words there is plenty of moisture for early March.

There is also enough CAPE for a few thundershowers. K index values (used to determine the odds of air mass thunderstorms) are projected to reach up to 30 by Monday morning. That translates to a 40-60% chance of thunderstorms. Nothing says spring like a little thunder and lightning!

With decent dynamics and moisture this system has the potential to bring the largest precipitation totals to parts of my area in more than 2 months. The last time more than 0.51" fell here in Cedar Rapids was December 28th. (Sunday will be the 18th consecutive day with no measurable precipitation). Most models are indicating amounts around 1/2 inch, in some spots 3/4 of an inch.

 

The GFS

The EURO

As is usually the case, the rain and northerly winds on the backside of the system will bring cooler temperatures for a couple days early next week. Nothing serious! Okay, get out there and enjoy your Saturday in the park (or wherever you decide to wander). Roll weather...TS 

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