A GOOD SOAKER, THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE...

March 10, 2020

After 20 consecutive days with no measurable rain, we turned the spicket back on with a real soaker Monday. Most places had at least 1/2" of rain and my southeastern counties went over the 1 inch mark. At last report Burlington had quite the soaker with 1.30" reported there. Here's the Doppler estimates from the NWS Quad Cities.

The system certainly brought temperatures back to reality with much of Iowa down 30-40 degrees since Sunday afternoon. Easy come, easy go.

Now the pattern gets very active with 3 systems between now and Saturday. None of these looks to have much impact but the push pull nature of all the systems will create some big temperature swings. To give you an idea in my area here is the EURO meteogram for Cedar Rapids the next 10 days. Highs go from the mid 60s Thursday to the mid 30s Saturday and back to 60 the following Thursday. Now that's spring in the Midwest.

There's even a chance of some snow or a rain snow mix in parts of the region Saturday. The latest trends are for a weaker system that's further south. Confidence is low in any solution regarding snow but it is high that this weekend is going to be far chillier than the one we just went through. For now we'll leave the snow threat as something to watch in coming days. Here's what the GFS and EURO currently show for raw snowfall totals. Rest assured these are not something to bank on this early in the game.

 

The EURO.

THE GFS.

Otherwise, some light rain is possible Tuesday night and again Thursday. The track and timing of the showers will dictate how warm temperatures get, especially Thursday.

 

One teleconnection that's worth watching in the short term is the EPO (eastern Pacific Oscillation). For most of the last 2 months its been in a positive phase which is conducive to mild Midwestern temperatures. Now look at the dip projected on both the GFS and EURO.

 

The GFS

The EURO

See how the negative phase has a tendency to bring a much cooler brand of weather.

 

If this comes to fruition this is a different pattern and it should force a reaction of some sort to colder weather. Maybe it's just a quick hiccup but if the negative phase holds for a time it does not bode well for warm spring-like weather. I will be keeping tabs on this trend as it could have significant implications for temperatures. 

 

I guess that's enough for now. Tuesday will be a brighter day with highs back in the upper 40s to low 50s. Not bad for March 10th. Roll weather...TS

 

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© 2019 Terry Swails