© 2019 Terry Swails

SNOW CHANCES UP A BIT...

March 13, 2020

The latest trend in models is to push the Saturday snow system a bit further north. A real battle has been going on between dry air and the northward extend of the snow band. The 500mb short wave seems to be a bit stronger and that is likely the primary reason for the creep deeper into my southern counties.

 

It does look like it will be a very sharp cut-off to the edge of the accumulating snow somewhere between HWY 20 and HWY 30. My model of preference is again the EURO and this is what the latest run shows. The 1" line is close to HWY 30 and the 2" line is nearing I-80. Further south a few spots along and south of HWY 34 could pick up 3", (perhaps 4" in extreme SE Iowa and WC Illinois). That area is under a winter weather advisory Saturday.

The snow is not expected to start until daybreak and should diminish from west to east in the afternoon. Marginal surface temperatures and warm ground may limit accumulations on hard surfaces such as roads. However, if we get into heavier bursts, especially near and south of I-80 slushy roads could make for slick travel conditions. The greatest accumulations should be on grassy and elevated surfaces and even there the warm ground and settling of the wet snow may make a 2" fall look more like 1".

 

In general I do not expect major problems but the snow will be a sloppy nuisance over the southern half of my area. Here's some additional snowfall forecasts from various models.

 

The GFS

 The 3k NAM

 The 12k NAM

Will be watching the data and will get you the new EURO mid evening. Until then, roll weather...TS

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