As of early afternoon a warm front is surging into southern Iowa as low pressure continues to deepen over southwest Iowa. Temperatures near Lamoni in SC Iowa are have reached 71 degrees while instability rapidly increases south of the boundary. Late this afternoon a cold front entering from the west will allow destabilization in the warm sector with rapid development of discrete thunderstorms. A tornado risk is expected to develop, especially near the warm front which will cut through my area. SPC continues with its rare moderate risk of severe weather.
SPC says this in their latest discussion...
Greatest risk for long-track/significant tornadoes, along with potential for very large/destructive hail and damaging wind gusts, still appears to exist from portions of northeastern Missouri and arcing northwestward into Iowa, and then eastward across Illinois and into Indiana. This risk will largely exist with new/intense storm development this afternoon in the wake of the initial convection -- but also potentially evolving with a few intensifying storms within the initial/ongoing band of convection -- along/near the warm front into Indiana. As the storms intensify rapidly this afternoon in response to the rapidly evolving environment, expect peak tornado risk to occur through late afternoon and into early evening, spreading from eastern Iowa/northeast Missouri across the remainder of the MDT and ENH risk areas. Given existing uncertainties due to ongoing precipitation/cloud cover, and anticipated/rapid changes in the environment as the warm front lifts northward and clouds thin/clear from the west, confidence remains too low to delineate a potentially concentrated area of greatest risk, which would otherwise support high risk upgrade. As the situation evolves, a possible upgrade remains possible for the 20Z outlook update, given the larger-scale pattern/environment which continues to appear favorable for several significant tornadoes.
Again, a severe-weather outbreak is expected for portions of my area, especially south of HWY 20. A few long-tracked, significant tornadoes are possible, along with large, damaging hail and severe gusts. Tornado watches are anticipated soon and warnings are likely. Keep a watchful eye to the sky and pay close attention to any warnings as the atmosphere enters a very unstable state late afternoon and early evening. Roll Weather...TS