MANIC START TO APRIL...

April 1, 2020

Spring has sprung (sort of) and as is typically the case, our weather has had its share of ups and downs. The next 10-14 days look especially manic with more than a week of mild temperatures before a significant cooling trend closes out the period. The EPO (eastern Pacific Oscillation) certainly points the way showing the positive spike of the warm-up April 5-9th. It then shows the cool-down of the negative phase that takes shape April 10-15th.

 

The EURO ensemble EPO

 The GFS ensemble EPO

 During the warmth you can see the storm track at 500mb that brings above normal temperatures. 

 Here's the associated temperature departures pushing 30 degrees above normal

By April 13th the flip takes place with the storm track dramatically different and delivering a healthy shot of cold air. I wonder it this might be a bit dramatic. I'm hoping it is because if this verifies it will bring some noticeable April chill.

 You can see it here with much of the central Midwest 15-20 degrees below normal April 13-14th.

There's likely to be more active weather too with the mean trough late this week into the middle of next week out of the southwest. You can see that brings plenty of water vapor into the eastern half of the nation. Here are the forecast PWAT's Tuesday evening.

With several disturbances in the flow precipitation will pick up again. Over the next 16 days the GFS has totals that look like this.

The EURO came in this way the next 15 days.

April showers and thunderstorms should become widespread over much of the eastern 2/3rds of the nation during the next 6-10 days. For my area I don't see much in the way of precipitation until Thursday night/Friday. That leaves us with a couple of good days ahead. Highs will reach the mid to upper 50s Wednesday and then climb into the 60s Thursday before the rain arrives. 

 

Overall, I see no shortage of weather in the next couple of weeks. Hopefully, we can keep all the precipitation rain. The EURO control gets some snow into northern Iowa with that punch of cold air April 13th. Not the type of map you want to see going into the 3rd week of April.

That's all for now. Here's hoping you are all coping with covid and that you, your family and friends are all in good health. We are now in a war that has no face, weapons, or objectives. Ironically, race, religion, political allegiance, age, or gender have no relevance. The world is on the same side in this fight and that is quite a concept. If nothing else, let's hope a level playing field reminds us that we are all nothing more people sharing the same planet. Do unto your neighbor as you would have them do unto you. Roll weather...TS    

 

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© 2019 Terry Swails