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The weather has been active around the central U.S. the last 36 hours and remains that way Saturday as a well organized storm system works it way from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley.

In advance of this storm, a weaker disturbance brought showers and storms to much of the area Thursday night and Friday morning. I had another round of showers and storms at my place that produced some sharp cloud to ground lightning. In spots, rainfall was greater than a half inch but in general around my area was 1/4 inch or less.

Saturday's storm is far better organized and shows up this way on the high-res satellite imagery Friday night. Severe weather is pounding parts of Oklahoma and Texas with rain extending northward into SE Iowa.

At jet stream level you can see a vigorous 500mb trough digging into the Midwest Saturday morning providing the energy and lift for precipitation.

You can also see on the water vapor depiction the moisture wrapping into the surface low in Illinois. There's a very sharp cut-off to the northern edge of the moisture shield as dry air resides over much of Iowa, NW Illinois and points north.

That dry air is the key to the forecast today as it slowly advance east along with the surface low. It will make a big difference in weather conditions from NW to SE across my area Saturday. As far as the rain goes, it will definitely be confined to the southeast half of my area and fall heaviest just south and east of the Quad Cities. The EURO has this for total precipitation through the duration of the storm, a 3"+ bullseye over central Illinois. Nothing at all in my northwest counties where the dry air wins out!

Here's the depiction of the rain shield in 3 different time frames Saturday to give you an idea of who needs the umbrella and who doesn't.

6:00 am Saturday

1:00 pm Saturday

10:00 pm Saturday evening.

Where rain falls the majority of the day in my far eastern counties very chilly conditions are likely with readings staying in the 40s all day (that's the ugly). In my central counties near the Mississippi where the rain ends early afternoon, clouds will hang tough all day and highs remain stuck in the low 50s (that's the bad). In my western counties where the dry air should eventually bring breaks for sunshine, highs have a shot at reaching the low 60s...but that is predicated on the amount of sunshine.(that's the good)

Sunday the whole mess is gone and all of my area enjoys a partly sunny day with highs back in the low to mid 60s.

Monday and Tuesday the active pattern returns but so do warmer temperatures. Readings are expected to climb into the upper 60s to low 70s. However, chances for rain will go up, especially Tuesday when some active thunderstorms are possible depending on the degree of instability and timing of our next cold front.

That's it for now. Enjoy your weekend and be aware, the good for all of us comes Sunday and Monday, the bad and the ugly is reserved for Saturday. Roll weather...TS

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