This is the time of year when you expect the weather to be active around the Midwest and we've certainly had that going for us the past 2 weeks. After a short 2 day break the next storm is knocking on the door and is set to bring showers and storms (perhaps a strong one or two) back to the area Tuesday.
As you can see in the 500mb upper air depiction the short wave is a strong one with ample energy. It eventually develops a closed circulation.
Out ahead of the trough moisture is rapidly streaming northward Tuesday which is depicted as precipitable water vapor
There's also a surface low to reckon with that enters my area late in the afternoon. When it arrives temperatures are forecast to be around 70, maybe 75 in the far southwest.
Dew points are going to take a nice jump into the low 60s denoting the increasing moisture.
The moisture and warmth are going to push CAPE values near 1000 j/kg which is plenty of instability for thunderstorms.
The 3k NAM is even more bullish on instability producing CAPE over 2000 J/kg. That seems on the high end to me but if for some reason it is realized that is rich environment for strong storms.
The EURO shows this for 3 hour cumulative lightning strikes between 4 and 7:00 pm.
In a nutshell, a surface low and attendant cold front will impinge on the warm moist air in my area. If the instability is reached thunderstorms will develop. Some have the potential to produce severe weather. While there is enough shear for an attendant tornado threat, wind and hail is likely to be the greatest threats. The Storm Prediction Center has much of my area in a slight risk of seeing severe thunderstorms. The most likely time is after 3:00 pm lasting into early evening. The keys to watch in the strength of storms in my area is how fast the cold front is and how warm and moist the atmosphere is ahead of the front. The slower the front the better the chances for severe weather, especially if we can get some decent afternoon heating.
Rainfall is expected to be heaviest in my eastern counties where the storms will be most widespread and at peak intensity when they pass. The Weather Prediction Center has this for total precipitation.
The EURO spits out these amounts.
Following the front temperatures will cool into the 50s Wednesday with stiff west/northwest winds that gust 30-40 mph. Scattered light instability showers are also possible, As you can see on the EURO the strong winds are widespread through the Midwest. Looks like a crummy day!
Fortunately conditions rapidly improve Thursday and by Friday highs will be pushing 70. A few showers are possible Friday as the warmer air returns but precipitation looks light and spotty at this time. That's a wrap for now. Roll weather...TS