MAY FLOWERS "COOLER THAN USUAL"...

May 1, 2020

Well, here we are into the month of May. Personally, I think it's the most beautiful month of the year in the Midwest. The grass has that emerald green color, everything is blooming, and it's lush baby. Throw in a sunny warm day and it's a sensational environment!

 

While we will have our nice days, I'm seriously thinking that this May has the potential to end up well below normal in the temperature department.

 

What's driving my concern is the MJO. As I accurately laid out back at the beginning of April it was likely to be in the cold phases most of the month leading to cooler than average temperatures. Here's where we stand entering the last day of the month. Not much serious warmth to be found.

Going forward the MJO,pops into warmer phases for a few days but quickly cycles back into colder phases as it makes another tour into 1, 2, and 3. Those phases all favor well below normal temperatures in the month of May. This forecast off the EURO through May 14th shows the expected progression (follow the dotted green lines) 

Extending further into the future this forecast from the EURO seasonal outlook shows the MJO trends through May 29th. Important to note is the MJO remains in phases 1, 2, and 3 the majority of the month.

 That strongly implies a cool May for the Midwest as you can see in the temperature analogs for phases 1, 2, and 3

The EURO deterministic and ensemble outlooks are in good agreement with the models MJO forecast showing these temperature departures in 5 day increments. This adds high confidence to what looks to be a late arrival of summer-like temperatures.

 

Days 5-10 (May 5-10th)

Day 10-15 (May 10-15th) things look very chilly at 5,000 feet over much of the country. Those May flowers will be "cool-er" than usual this year.

Here's the projected 500mb jet stream structure on day 10 (May 10th)

 A similar look prevails May 15th.

The Climate Prediction Center is on board with the trend showing this for temperature and precipitation in their 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. With the fresh northwest flow moisture should be limited and there is a good chance precipitation will be below normal along with temperatures.

 

The 6-10 day outlook from CPC

 The 8-14 day outlook from CPC

Again, there's likely to be a few May days ahead of cold air shots where we see a day or 2 of nice warm weather, especially considering normal highs are shooting into the 70s. But in the end, temperatures will average substantially below what's typical meaning lots of 60s compared to the 70s we should be getting. Nights will likely be unusually crisp That's not what I had hoped for but that's certainly what the tea cards are showing going into May. Roll weather...TS

 

By the way, will have a video for you later today as we take the first leg of our journey to Portland, Maine. Hope to be near Cleveland when we stop tonight. Put the pedal to the medal Fred!

 

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© 2019 Terry Swails