We've been talking about this for a while now and the change arrives soon. We're going to see below normal temperatures for the first two weeks or so of May so enjoy the warmth while it lasts. Here's a look at the Climate Prediction Center outlook for May 10-16:
Now let's talk about where we are and how we get to the blues... (just a note, but Mr. Tswails is also in the blue!). Saturday was a nice, mild day. A cold front moved through the area and did bring some light showers. But in between the rain we had sunshine and warm temperatures:
Even though a front moved through temperatures won't be all that different Sunday. It'll still be nice and warm:
There will be plenty of sunshine and temperatures will be running above normal. Then we start the downward trend as we head into next week. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler Monday behind a cold front Sunday night:
What's happening way above our heads is also important and driving what's happening at the surface. In the upper levels of the atmosphere right now we are under a ridge (promotes warm weather):
As we head into next week that ridge is replaced by a trough, which develops northwest flow (generally promotes cooler air):
Northwest flow also leads to drier air, but can be an active pattern. This means we will still have precipitation, but it will be on the light side. Unfortunately as we continue to have systems move through that will knock the temperatures back below normal. For reference, average ("normal") temperatures this time of year are in the mid to upper 60s in the afternoons and low to mid 40s. And here's a look at the temperatures for Cedar Rapids ont he European model:
This is just one model and the numbers will have to be forecasted daily based on a lot of other factors, but you can see the trend. The other thing is the overnight temperatures down in the 30s will support patchy to widespread frost (if we have light winds and clear skies). So if you've planted anything you'll want to keep an eye on the forecast.