TROPICAL TROUBLE NEXT WEEK?

June 5, 2020

It's late Thursday evening and I'm sitting here in Maine watching thunderstorms go off back home in Iowa and Illinois. As a write this a number of thunderstorm and flash flood warnings are in effect. Here's what the thunderstorm clusters look like from more than 20,000 miles in space. I do miss me a good old fashioned Midwest t/storm!

While somewhat spotty, in coverage, where the storms visited they were known to dump torrential rain. A few places picked up 2-3" totals in an hour or two. In Iowa, County around Willamsburg and Conroy 3-5" amounts were reported. That does not include anything that might have added to the final tally Thursday night. These are the Doppler estimates through 1:30 am Friday morning.

Speaking of additional rain, what's left of the overnight convection should drift out of the area early Friday. Then we await one more opportunity, mainly near or south of I-80 with a cold front later in the afternoon. If these storms get going they once again could be good rain producers before sinking into Missouri and Illinois early in the evening.

 

Then the weekend arrives and it is setting up to be a nice one with highs upper 70s to near 80 with much less humidity. The 3k NAM has dew points Sunday morning in the upper 40s to low 50s, a drop of 20 degrees from where we're at now. Nothing like that back door front to freshen things up!

Early next week southerly flow returns along with a warmer temperatures and moisture. A contributing factor will be what's left of Christobal which will depart the Gulf of Mexico around New Orleans and then swing north. The tropical remnants will be absorbed in a trough headed for the Midwest. This sets the stage for a heavy rain potential wherever the merger takes place. 

 

The EURO continues to draw a bead on my area showing the center over Muscatine, Iowa Tuesday night. Look out Millers! 

The EURO has available water vapor exceeding 3" up to the Iowa border...about 4 standard deviations above normal.

The tight circulation is also shown bringing some significant winds. 10 meter gusts over 70 mph are showing up west of the low in EC Iowa. I have serious reservations about anything over 50 mph...just saying.

Some 6" rain totals are also showing up west of the Mississippi in my local area. Widespread heavy rains of 4-6 are depicted which would no doubt cause problems with both flooding and flash flooding.

There is still plenty of time for changes and there will be some, it's just a matter how significant they turn out to be. That said, overall consistency has been good on the EURO so I am getting concerned about the potential ahead. Right now, confidence is low to moderate on the above scenario in the central Midwest but it is growing. Not the direction we want to be headed. More to come! Roll weather...TS

 

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© 2019 Terry Swails