CONTROVERSY ON THE RAINS RETURNING...

June 12, 2020

It goes without saying that much of my area and the central Midwest has been living on the wet side much of the last month. These are the rainfall departures for the past 30 days around the heart of the corn belt. The greatest surplus of 3-6 inches extends from NE and EC Iowa across northern Illinois. Chicago is up 6 inches over that 30 day period.

 These figures represent the actual totals which are in the range of 7-10 inches in a number of locations.

Despite the overall wet period soil moisture levels long and short term are about where they should be as of Thursday. The metric below known as the arridity index, based on temperature, precipitation, and evaporation show both Cedar Rapids and the Quad Cities near the preferred baseline of zero. Go figure!

 

By comparison here in Portland, Maine we have seen just 0.38" of rain the past 28 days. Typically the period would see around 3.50". I'm actually watering the yard as are many of my neighbors. I have an entire ocean 2 blocks away and yet it won't rain even with all that available water vapor. I'm in the red area along the coast where those 3-4" 30 day departures are found.

Going forward the EURO is pointing to a relatively dry 10 day period. Precipitation is forecast to be significantly below normal with temperatures above average. That is also what the Climate Prediction Center is indicating.

The EURO has this for 10 day rainfall totals with the departures shown below it.

Then there is the GFS and it is on another trail. Look what it has for 10 day rain totals with its departures below shown below it. Precipitation is far more generous and even above normal in most of my area.

 

In my last post I brought up the fact that the dryness indicated in the operational models did not coincide with what the MJO cycle was indicating. Today the EURO and GFS MJO tours keep them passing sluggishly through phases 2 and 3 the next couple of weeks. During June those are wet phases around the central Midwest. Take a look, green depicts above normal precipitation.

As much as I have issues with the GFS and its ability to capture long term trends, its wetter look the next 10 days coincides with what the MJO precipitation analogs support. Maybe it gives the EURO a little spanking? I'm leaning towards its solution. I think this part of the mid to long range forecast is far from certain as this dispute remains unresolved.

 

Meantime, Friday is setting up to be a fine late spring day with sunny skies and warm readings in the range of 80-85 degrees, Saturday and Sunday will be cooler in the 70s. There is also a chance of some light showers in NE Iowa and NW Illinois Saturday night but nothing heavy.

 

That's all I have for now. I'm getting a haircut Friday afternoon for the first time in over 3 months. Things are a little bushy if you know what I mean. Browsing through the web I came across a stylist named Kong who has a good reputation. I decided on her. With a name like Kong how can you go wrong. Wish me luck. Roll weather...TS

 

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© 2019 Terry Swails