The official start of summer is just days away. There's always speculation about the amount of heat that will come with it. Are we headed for a summer of discontent? One thing I've noticed recently is the trend away from the cool temperatures that dominated April and May. You can see the departures were significant in both of those months.
Then came the reversal. Here's what we've seen in June so far.
Is this the prototype for temperatures going forward? If the EURO weeklies are correct most definitely. This is the 46 day temperature departures that the control shows. This ends the last day of July. A very toasty look for most of the nation.
The EURO sees a persistent ridge centered over the plains or Midwest much of July. That would generate plenty of heat if indeed it develops as shown.July 16th.
That also implies the storm track (ring of fire) would be located near the Canadian border keeping the active thunderstorm clusters north of the central Midwest. Here's the 46 day precipitation departures.
Currently the MJO is not in a favorable pattern for persistent widespread heat. However, around July 1st it is shown trying to swing into phase 3.
That would allow the heat to impinge on my area. This is the July temperature analog for phase 3.
However, the central Midwest is just on the northern periphery of the warmth and thunderstorms could be expected with the ring of fire directly overhead. That is a contradiction from what the weeklies depict.
The deciding factor regarding how hot and how dry the region gets will be the eventual position and strength of the ridge. That is a variable we just can't foresee but at least for now a compromise is the way I would play it. I think overall a summer with near to slightly above normal temperatures and near to slightly below normal precipitation. We'll see where the trends are pointing in a couple weeks to fine tune the details.
Meantime, the next couple of days look sunny, dry and warmer. Make your plans outdoors. Roll weather...TS