DOROTHY, I'M NOT IN IOWA ANYMORE...
The weather has been a a bit slow around the Midwest the last week so today I start you off with something unique to my area. For those of you unaware, I now make my home in Portland, Maine. Two things to know about the area from a weather standpoint. Number one, I'm only about 4 hours from Canada. As the crow flies less than 300 miles from the border. This is a northern latitude and winters can be feisty.
Number two, the Gulf of Maine (part of the Atlantic Ocean) is two blocks away. That means I'm in a location with rich moisture that can produce vicious nor'easters as well as hurricanes. I see these sights commonly around town, evacuation routes for potential tropical systems and hydrant markers for fire fighters to see when the snow is deeply piled. A typical winter gets 60-70 inches of snow but the most was 150 inches. Good lord, I can only hope!
Every time I see either of these features I can't help but get excited about the possibilities that exist for extreme weather here. Ironically, conditions have been anything but exciting so far as Portland has picked up just 0.38" of rain the past 34 days. We are 4.00" below normal during that period and rain prospects don't look good anytime soon. I'm more than a little itchy for some action.
Getting back to the weather n the Midwest, things will be turning more active as we head into the weekend. The key to the forecast will be the return of southwesterly flow and its associated moisture. Thursday is a transition day and by all accounts ends up warm but quite tolerable in terms of humidity. The deeper moisture remains to my west where the moisture transport is more favorable. These are the projected dew points Thursday afternoon, still anchored in the 50s in many spots. So, even though highs hit the mid to upper 80s it won't feel too bad. Just another nice warm day.
Friday in advance of a cold front dew points will jump at least 10 degrees..That should get us into the mid to upper 60s. The moisture then remains anchored in place until a front can slip by Saturday night or early Sunday.
The front itself will be the forcing mechanism for shower and thunderstorm chances Friday night through Saturday night.. Overall the storms should be progressive producing many dry hours. However, when storms do pop up they could deliver some generous downpours, especially west of the Mississippi.. Shear and CAPE are not all that impressive so the severe threat should be limited at best and confined to Saturday afternoon and evening. At this point, SPC does not even have a slight risk out for strong storms.
As far as rain goes, the EURO shows this for totals through Saturday night..
The GFS is similar in its rainfall outlook.
The positive news is that the rain threat looks to lessen Father's Day. There may be a few lingering showers early but most models now indicate a dry afternoon with highs close to the norms in the low 80s. We'll keep an eye on trends with fingers crossed that nothing changes in the next 24-48 hours.
All right, I'm off to study my evacuation route in case the need ever arises from a hurricane. Wouldn't that be something! Roll weather...TS