TERRY ASKS FOR A MULLIGAN...
At the beginning of the week I showed the temperature departures for the month of June (they currently look like this). I asked the question, is this the prototype for summer temperatures ahead?
I then showed the EURO weekly 46 day temperature projections through the end of July that looked like this. They are very warm and focused on the central U.S.
I said at the time that if the weeklies were right it would no doubt be a warmer than normal summer. However, I followed that up by noting the MJO was not in phases that would support consistent heat until early July at the earliest. I also indicated there was doubt about how strong a summer ridge would be and how far into the Midwest any warmth would get. I ended with the conclusion that a compromise might be the best way to go and that in my opinion summer temperatures would end up near to slightly above normal.
Well, I might have jumped on the wagon a bit too soon as the latest run of the weeklies looks much different. Here it is in comparison to the toasty old run. That is a pretty dramatic shift in just 3 days time over the center of the nation..
Short term models (especially the GFS) don't have any signs of heat in the next 15 days. Here's the break down in 5 day increments.
Day 5-10. This is very significant and probably 2-3 degrees too cool.
Day 10-15. Warmer but barely above average.
The Climate Prediction Center is on board showing a very cool 6-10 day outlook leading us into July.
I see no reason to argue with the cool to come as the MJO oscillations on the EURO and CFSv2 are having a very hard time getting out of phase 2
As you can see the phase analog for 2 in June is cooler than normal over much of the central Midwest.
With sea surface temperatures setting up the way they are I've had a change of heart and suspect much of the summer we may reside on the northern fringe of NW flow aloft. With that in mind (along with the change in the weeklies) I'm amending my summer outlook downward to include near to slightly below normal temperatures. That was my initial plan a couple months ago and then I got cold feet and sold my soul. Now, I'm going with my gut feeling which I typically do. I apologize for my wayward ways and any confusion. Since it's a 3 month forecast and it's not officially summer yet, I'm asking for a mulligan in the interest of accuracy. No going back now! I'm on the hook. Roll weather...TS
PS I think rainfall will be near to slightly above normal. I'm done....