It's hot, it's humid, yeah it's summer. Now we've had some stretches of dry time and we've had some storms... now we're starting to see severe weather poke it's head into the mix. Let's start with some of the recent dry weather. Here's the latest Drought Monitor in the Midwest:
Central Iowa got some rain this weekend but they've been hurting. As have portions of far eastern Iowa and central Illinois. So yes, rain is good. Severe weather... isn't great. But we have had a slow season around here recently (until Saturday of course). Now we have an active pattern that will unfold with the 'ring of fire' pattern. This is when a dome of heat builds in and tends to have an active zone of weather on it's edge.
Monday will likely be dry, but will be another warm and humid day.
There will be the chance for storms on Tuesday and strong to severe thunderstorms are likely.
There is still some uncertainty on how storms evolve Tuesday but it looks like storms will arrive late in the day Tuesday/Tuesday evening. There will be plenty of CAPE (convective available potential energy) or instability, to fuel storms and strong storms.
Here's a look at the hi-resolution NAM showing the thunderstorms moving through:
Similar to Saturday, strong winds and hail will be the main threats but tornadoes cannot be ruled out at this time.
There will be multiple chances for storms over the next week and there will also be plenty of heat over the next few weeks.
Heat likely continues through the end of July. Ooofta!