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It's Monday night and here in Portland, Maine (as in many parts of the east coast) the focus is on hurricane Isaias which formed Monday evening off the coast of South Carolina. While not overly strong for a hurricane, Isaias will be a force long after landfall as an unusually strong 120 kt jet keeps the storms circulation intact producing very strong wind gusts and heavy rain all the way into New England (where I am). In fact, my area is under a tropical storm warning Tuesday. Needless to say I'm jacked about this exciting development!

The track of the storm will take it from North Carolina to near New York City and then up into northwest Maine. The strongest winds will occur near and just east of the center. This is the circulation center on the EURO Tuesday mid-afternoon past Philadelphia and closing in on Trenton, NJ.

These are the 10 meter wind gusts shown on the EURO...about 32 feet off the ground. A swath of 60-85 mph gusts are widespread all the way to New Hampshire. How much of that momentum can be transferred to the surface is the big question. I would think you could shave at least 10-15 off the speeds shown.

Take a look at the area around New York City. Over the outer parts of the harbor and Long Island the EURO has 10 meter gusts of 80-85 mph with a max of 89. Some of those high rise buildings could take a real beating. The storm will be screaming along at 40-50 mph by then so fortunately the worst of the wind will occur over a 2-4 hour window. There is the potential for significant damage and power outages over many parts of the mid Atlantic and northeast if the worst case scenario pans out.

While the worst of the wind is southeast of the center, the worst of the rain will fall to its northwest. 3-6" amounts (locally more) are expected over interior sections of the east coast.

Here in Portland the potential exists for winds of 50-60 mph but the heavier rains should bypass my area to the northwest. I do plan to try and send some live Facebook updates Tuesday showing conditions as they deteriorate in my area as the afternoon and evening unfolds. The worst of it here should be early evening, somewhere between 6 and 9:00 pm if the timing holds.

Meanwhile, back home the weather in the Midwest is quiet and pleasant under the influence of the massive trough that is ventilating the tropical storm. Temperatures and humidity levels will remain very comfortable through Thursday as summer continues to vacation down south. Enjoy! Roll weather...TS

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