ALL IN ON DRY WEATHER...

August 14, 2020

Despite one of the most impactful storms in Iowa's weather history earlier this week, much of the state remains in dry to even extreme drought conditions. The latest drought monitor out Thursday shows a large part of western Iowa in moderate to extreme drought. Much of the remainder of the state and a bit of NW Illinois is rated abnormally dry. 

Below you can see the hard hit areas west of Des Moines where rains have been scarce all summer long. 80 percent of Iowa is considered to be at least abnormally dry with roughly 25 percent in severe to extreme drought.

These are the rain departures since the beginning of summer (June 1). As dry as its been in western Iowa, just to the south in Missouri a couple hundred miles away surpluses of up to 14 inches are noted. Feast or famine.

 Here are the departures since July 1st. Notice how the dryness has spread east the past 6 weeks.

Unfortunately prospects for rain do not appear good for some time to come. Here are the 10 and 15 day rainfall departures depicted on the EURO.

 

10 day departures

15 day departures 

 Notice too how much of the country outside of the southeast is in line for the dry conditions the next two weeks.

The EURO weeklies which go out 46 days to the end of September don't show much in the way of promise. Here's it's rainfall departures through September 28th.

The bright spot is that at least temperatures don't look exceedingly warm. In fact, the GFS has some very cool readings indicated in its 16 day meteorgram. A lot of days in that 75-80 degree range with 3 in the 60s. I'm reasonably sure this is several degrees cooler than what ends up verifying.

The EURO which goes out 10 days, is substantially warmer. I would favor a warmer look (somewhat toned down from the EURO) as a result of recent dryness and more to come. I expect lower than average dew points due to the anticipated pattern and in large part from lowered evapotranspiration from the severely damaged corn crop. Additionally, ample sunshine should help warm the dry air. However, the trade off is likely to be cooler temperatures at night so in the end it may be a wash. There may be a day or two where readings get warm but no prolonged heat is in sight as summer begins to fade for another year.

Outside of a small chance of showers Friday night or Saturday, the rest of the 7 day forecast looks dry. The EURO has this for rainfall through Sunday night. Most of my area gets a pass.

Thank God it's Friday. For many of you its been a rough week with storm damage, power outages, the ongoing pandemic, and whatever else life throws at you. Stay strong and know that we're all in this together. Better days are ahead. Roll weather...TS

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© 2019 Terry Swails