- Sep 15, 2020

RIDE SALLY, RIDE...

With 7 tropical systems in the Atlantic being monitored, and only 3 names left reserved for the Atlantic Hurricane season, we are likely going to run out of predefined storm names to use. The remaining unused storm names are Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred. Once those names have been assigned to a storm, the NHC will make additional names taken from the Greek alphabet. IE Alpha, Beta, etc.

The only time this has been done was during the historic 2005 hurricane season, which ended up with 28 named storms. Could 2020 be the 2nd time this is done? I think that's inevitable given at least 2 storms currently in the Atlantic right now that are pending names, and the hurricane season still has another 2.5 months left

The storm that poses the most immediate threat to the U.S. is Tropical Storm Sally, which should be near a Category 2 intensity hurricane by landfall somewhere in the vicinity of Biloxi or Mobile late Tuesday night or Wednesday. Latest guidance has been trending slower and a bit further east. The storm is compact but looking healthier Monday night on the satellite imagery.

Winds nearing 110 mph are expected around landfall making Sally a strong category 2 hurricane.

Aside from an unusually high and dangerous storm surge, the hurricane is a slow mover and could produce 10-15" of rain (locally 24 inches) near the Gulf coast. Flooding is a bigger concern than wind.

With the current upper air pattern the Midwest will see no repeat of last week when much of my are had 4-8" of rain, (9 in a few local spots). Now we are in a strong west/northwest flow aloft and that will keep Sally and her moisture far far away in the days ahead. The 500mb jet stream pattern Wednesday evening.

This type of set-up also precludes precipitation and the forecast looks very much on the quiet side much of the next 15 days. The EURO ensemble control shows this for rainfall between now and September 29th.

The GFS operational looks very similar over that same 15 day stretch.

Temperature the next couple days will be nice and warm with 80s returning to the Midwest. Wednesday might even see a mid 80 reading which will be a solid 30 degrees warmer than last Wednesday. Skies will be a bit hazy though as forest fires out west send smoke our way. It was readily apparent in our skies Monday as you can see in this satellite image. Not the best air quality.

A cooling trend commences Thursday and will last the rest of the week as a cold front slips southeast. A big Canadian high settles in behind that keeping us pleasantly cool during the day and nice an crisp at night. By Friday lows are well into the 40s.