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A BROKEN RECORD...

For quite some time now, our weather has been a recycled version of itself. It rains, gets breezy, cools down, warms up, then does it again, every 2–3 days. It's a broken record that many of us are getting tired of hearing, seeing, and feeling. On a positive note, my yard is green and growing like it's on steroids. If I don't mow it every 5 days, I can't get through it and I end up bailing it. Such a time.


Another large scale disturbance continues its slog through the Midwest Tuesday. It's produced scattered showers and storms since Sunday night that grew slightly in scope and coverage overnight, particularly across my southern counties. As you can see, the system is large and has ample moisture on the GOES satellite imagery Monday night.

The swirl in the clouds over Iowa is the deformation zone tied to an upper air low tracking through Missouri Tuesday morning.

The position of the storm Tuesday will continue to produce considerable cloudiness and occasional periods of showers and a few thunderstorms south. One area that could be on the outside looking in is the far north, where much lighter amounts are likely in my far northwest counties. Otherwise, most of the region will see occasional periods of rain (mainly light) through mid-morning, but by afternoon the focus should be more on the southern third with the system slowly spinning off to the southeast. The GFS surface depiction at noon indicates the rain and the position of the surface low southwest of St. Louis.

Some pockets of heavier rain are possible, particularly over the south Tuesday morning. Models are suggesting this for rain totals. Amounts across the board are down, indicating a trend for lighter rainfall than was previously indicated.


The EURO

The GFS

The HRRR

The 3K NAM

In general, rain and clouds should see to it that Tuesday is a cool day for mid-May, with highs generally in the range of 63-67. If a little sun can break out in the afternoon, slightly warmer temperatures are possible. Here's what the 3k NAM indicates for highs.


If this all sounds familiar, it should, as well as the remaining weather cycle for the rest of the week. More on that below. Meantime, I have a great vacation special at my AIRBNB in Galena. I'm offering 3 nights for the price of two to get the word out of what the church has to offer. We've also lowered our rates to beat the competition. Weekdays are an especially good value. Give Carolyn a call or text at 563-676-3320 to get the best deal for you and your group. Our renovated church is a 5 star, super host on AIRBNB.

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CAN WE BREAK THE CYCLE?

Weak high pressure builds into the region Wednesday. That is expected to result in a mostly sunny day. With the days getting set to shorten in 5 weeks, the sun is powerful. If you can get it to shine, it's a given high temperatures will at least reach the 70s. Thus, Wednesday looks bright and mild, with readings in the low 70s.


Thursday, the next system is already upon us, with another threat of showers and storms. This disturbance is not nearly as organized as the current one, lowering the threat of any widespread rains of consequence. However, it doesn't seem to take much to get a good rain lately, so we'll watch it closely. Highs should be down a bit Thursday, more in the upper 60s north to low 70s south. More of the same.


A WARM WEEKEND

We may see at least a temporary break in the pattern this weekend as the southern stream branch of the jet deamplifies and the northern branch cranks up over southern Canada. In theory, that would generate a strong W/SW flow that should warm us up and most likely dry us out until at least late Sunday.

After a pleasant day Friday, with highs well into the 70s, readings have the potential to soar into the 80s Saturday and Sunday. The GFS brings a front through Saturday night with a scattering of thunderstorms and a cooler day in the 70s Sunday. I'm not ready to buy into that solution yet, so I'm bullish on a warm weekend ahead with any thunderstorms relegated to later Sunday, similar to what the EURO depicts. The Weather Prediction Center does show above normal temperatures in the 6-10 day period. May 19-23rd.

While I'm not overly confident, I do think there is a good chance temperatures remain near normal in the week 2 period, which gets us most of the way through May. These are the 7-day temperature departures on the EURO for the period May 19-26th.

I do suspect the active weather will continue with regular rounds of rain and thunderstorms. But I can deal with that as long as it's warm. I'm ready for summer! Roll weather...TS

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