A LOT OF MEAT ON THE TABLE...
That big old upper air low that's been pinwheeling around the Midwest since last Saturday has finally made its way to the Great Lakes. That's just enough progress to take any lingering light showers out of the region, (that's aside from a few sprinkles or drizzle over the northeast). That means we'll carve out a nice afternoon as clouds thin and depart the area. After that, we're set up for a sensational weekend. I see a lot of meat on the table!
Before I get to that, this storm system that's on the way out did some good things for some and not so much for others. Below you can see the 7 day rainfall totals around the Midwest. Everywhere yellow is indicated, that's at least 2 inches of rain. The orange and reds are 3-6 in amounts. Much of Illinois, NE Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin received a welcome soaking. Unfortunately, my counties in SE Iowa and WC Illinois got the short end of the stick and some spots saw little if any rain. So close yet so far.
The big weather story now for my area is the building ridge and the warm temperatures that it will provide over the weekend and much of the extended period. You can watch the evolution of the pattern the next 6 days as a trough digs into the west forcing the ridge to go up over the center of the nation.
The resulting SW flow will send the "remnants" of summers heat into the Midwest. That will produce high temperatures in the 80s in most spots by Saturday. Just look at these temperature departures the EURO depicts by Monday evening.
The EURO meteogram shows the fall fling lasting through the balance of next week. The model has 4 consecutive days with highs in the 80s in the Quad Cities along with an 8 day run of max. temps in the range of 78-87 degrees. Yea baby!
The Climate Prediction Center focuses the above normal temperatures up through the spine of the Mississippi into the Great Lakes in its 6-10 day outlook.
As it stands now, the next 6 days appear to be dry. However, with the southwest flow and the building warmth will come an increase in moisture. Water vapor by next Wednesday is forecast on the EURO to reach greater than 1.50 inches.
With the moisture feed directly into the Midwest such levels of water vapor are more than 2 times greater than normal.
With forcing expected to increase and meander around the region after next Tuesday, the potential is there for above normal precipitation around the Midwest starting Wednesday of next week..
Here's what the EURO and GFS are indicating for rainfall over the next 15 days. Again, all of this comes after next Tuesday in my local area.
One thing I am watching intently is the trend for much cooler conditions around day 10 (October 7th). The GFS is the most aggressive with the trend and odds are it is much too cold and deep with the trough it's showing. However, come mid-October the doors to cold can start opening. So while chances are low of a full scale assault like the GFS shows, what the model shows is the first time in 6 months I've seen anything as fresh as this. Take it with a grain of salt. If nothing else it's fun to look at.
The 500mb jet stream flow October 13th. Cross polar flow.
That would result in temperature departures that look like this. At the very least that could certainly lead to some frost.
Now the fun part. Snow into northern Iowa. As exciting as that would be I would think we would be lucky to see a few flurries, let alone an inch. I'm 99% this is nothing more than eye candy. I just had to put it up because it's the first sign of winter I've seen on the charts this fall. I imagine this will all change substantially by tomorrow. I couldn't help myself! So much meat on the table.
Well, that's the long and short of it for now. Until next time roll weather...TS
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