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If Wednesday was a peach, it would have been a might sweet one. With sunny skies, a gentle breeze, temperatures near 80, and humidity of 35-40%, it doesn't bet much better than that!

Going forward, the region comes under the influence of strong closed upper air low that only slowly ejects NE from the southern Rockies. The initial impacts will be increased moisture in return flow ahead of the storm. Dew points will eventually surge into the mid 60s Friday and remain there Saturday. Here you can see water vapor (PWAT's) growing to near 1.50 inches late Friday evening.

The initial impacts for my area Thursday will be minimal with just a few more clouds and highs similar to Wednesday in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Friday a warm front organizes which in time becomes the forcing necessary for scattered showers and storms. While a few of these may sprout up Friday they look few and far between with better chances just to the west. With more in the way of clouds, Friday may be a bit cooler than Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Later Friday night as the low level jet strengthens, storms have the potential to build east along and north of the warm front during the night. Some of these could impact the region, mainly west of the Mississippi late at night. Some small hail and heavy rain is possible in any of the stronger updrafts that can reach my western counties in Iowa. SPC has a marginal severe storm outlook (1 out of 5) issued for the area west of a line from Manchester to the Quad Cities and on to Galesburg.

Saturday (especially Saturday afternoon and night) promises to be another period with thunderstorm potential. However, it is contingent on mesoscale details that will take a couple more days to pin down. It does appear enough heat and humidity will exist to generate the instability (CAPE) necessary for scattered storms. Shear is modest but there should be enough to create convection that could again be strong in spots. A triple point may exist in some part of the area to further focus storms. For now, the area north of I-80 is hinted at for development. Again, the environment looks favorable for heavy downpours "if and where" storms can fire. Highs in the range of 75-80 are anticipated with enough humidity to make for a muggy day.

Sunday look tricky with a front diving into the north early in the day. It may be accompanied by showers and storms in the morning across the north. Behind the front readings in the north could be quite cool with extensive cloud cover holding highs close to 60 while south of I-80 readings may reach 75-80 before the cooler air arrives late in the day. The EURO shows this for daytime highs.

The Weather Prediction Center indicates this for weekend rains. This is very subject to change depending on outflow boundaries and where forcing features are ultimately established.

The EURO shows this for the same period.

The GFS has this.

The National Model Blend produces amounts that look like this.



Beyond the weekend, northwest flow is again established which brings a drier pattern with near to slightly below normal temperatures. Nights will be cool but days mild. The Climate Prediction Center sees the set-up clearly in its 8-14 day outlook.

Precipitation May 18th-24th

Temperatures May 18th through 24th

Well, I hope you enjoyed that sweet peach we served up for you Wednesday. Thursday may not be quite so perfect but should still be good, more on the side of juicy grape. Whatever, have a terrific Thursday and roll weather....TS


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