A SHAKY START TO THE DAY...
MONDAY'S UNIQUE HIGH RISK SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...
Exceptional weather prevailed over my part of the Midwest Monday, with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and a fair amount of sunshine. The gentle nature of our weather belied the fact that a major severe weather outbreak was unfolding over the Plains, especially Kansas and Oklahoma, where a rare high risk outlook for tornadoes and severe weather was issued by the Storm Prediction Center.
From Wichita through Oklahoma City, SPC issued a hatched pink tornado outlook for 30-44% odds of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. That also included a 10% chance of a strong EF2 or greater tornado.
At 2:00pm. Monday, a PDS tornado watch was issued for that area. PDS standing for particularly dangerous situation. In this case, numerous tornadoes (several intense), and giant hail up to 4 inches was mentioned.
At the bottom of the watch below, the likelihood of tornadoes, EF2+ tornadoes, severe wind, severe hail, and hail 2 inches+, were all maxed out as high. I've only seen that a few times in my lengthy weather career.
Interestingly enough, the low level jet that was projected to enhance shear and tornado potential was slow to the party and as of 2:30am. Tuesday, only about 9–10 tornadoes had been reported in the high risk zone. That's still 9-10 more than we want to see, but considering the potential in the table, that is chump change. As I've said on here numerous times, you can have 9 ingredients, but you alter or leave out the 10th one, and the mesoscale environment is changed enough to diminish the threat. In other words, the cake is a flop. Here's hoping that holds through the remainder of the night. Sadly, I just saw a report of a significant tornado with possible fatalities in Barnsdall, Oklahoma. Rescue teams are actively working the scene. For more in what this large storm system means for us, read on. But first, check out the special below at my AIRBNB in Galena the weekend.
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THE REMNANTS ARE HERE...
The large scale trough that has caused the severe weather overnight from Iowa to the southern Plains continues to progress east. The remnants of that convection will cross through my region Tuesday morning. By then, instability will be significantly less and storms far weaker. However, a few could still produce some hail and winds, especially west of the Mississippi, but in general the severe potential is significantly less with the dry line passing at a time when storms are weakest. SPC only shows a marginal risk of severe weather after 7:00am in my area.
Following the morning storms, rapid clearing is expected with brisk SW winds. While a couple stray showers are possible late in the afternoon, most areas remain dry after the morning showers and storms clear. Temperatures remain mild, with highs again in the low to mid 70s. This initial round of rain should be light to moderate. If storms hold together more than expected, those updrafts could produce a few heavier downpours. It's hard to know the intensity several hours before the line arrives, especially when they are in a weakening state. Here's what models suggest for rain from 6:00am to 6:00pm.
The GFS
The EURO
After Tuesday's system ejects, late Wednesday or Wednesday night, an upper air low advances on the Midwest, creating another chance of showers that could linger into Thursday. After a break, additional showers are possible Friday night and again later Saturday afternoon with another NW flow disturbance. Most of these will be instability driven due to cold air aloft. None look to be heavy, just showery in nature. Here's the NW flow in the upper level pattern that brings the cool, unsettled pattern starting Thursday. This general set-up could hold for at least 10 days. Hate it....
As for specific temperatures, they stay in the 70s Wednesday. However, cooler air is on the move and Thursday through Saturday we've dropped into the 60s with nighttime lows headed for the 40s. We should get a reprieve Mother's Day as a brief return of southerly winds ahead of our next cool front allows highs to reach at least 70. The mild weather won't last long, but the timing appears good for family gatherings Sunday. Fingers crossed.
Well, plan for a shaky start to the day, but know that conditions will improve dramatically in the afternoon. At least we kept those big boomers away! Roll weather...TS.
