A STORMY PATTERN...

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A STORMY LOOKING PATTERN...

Since mid-January we've been in an active pattern that's brought regular storms and above normal precipitation to the central Midwest. In my region, we've seen 100 to 150 percent of our mean 30 day precipitation.

Snowfall in the NW half of my area has been 125 to 175 percent above the 30 day mean with an active storm track through eastern Iowa and NW Illinois

Wednesday's storm was a healthy rain producer, especially in the SE half of my area, (roughly the Quad Cities south and east). Over an inch feel in spots with 2-3 inch totals found in a swath south of Peoria and Bloomington. Here's the Doppler estimates.

The favored pattern during this active period has been a west coast trough and east coast ridge, such as we saw with Wednesday's system below.

Not only has that brought precipitation to the Midwest, it's delivered heavy rain and mountain snows to the west. Going into the fall much of that region was plagued by drought that was considered extreme to even exceptional in many areas. However, since the mean pattern began favoring a western trough in December you can see drought conditions have improved significantly out west since August 31st.

It gets even better the next 2 weeks with precipitation departures way above normal over the SW.

It appears wet conditions will continue in the central Midwest too as the loading pattern for storms continues to be anchored by the southwest trough which ejects energy/storms into the nation. 500mb heights from Alaska to western Greenland point to a blocking pattern consisting of high pressure that extends across Canada. With the blocking to the north, these storms will likely cut east across the country keeping things very active into mid March. I would expect above normal precipitation and while tempertures may end up close to normal, we'll likely see some pretty good swings with a set-up like that.

These are the precipitation departures forecast the next 10 days on the EURO. That's about as wet as it gets for late February and early March.

The actual precipitation totals look like this. Holy cow, that's insane.

The next storm is already entering the que and it promises to be another intense system by the time it reaches the Midwest Sunday night. The EURO brings a 975mb surface low towards southeast Iowa Monday. It generates a potent 70kt low level jet which again opens up the gulf and transports deep and unusually high moisture levels into the region. If the track holds it easily supports another widespread round of moderate to heavy rain.

Remarkably, water vapor levels in the form of PWATs approach 1.40 inches in southeastern Iowa. That's roughly 1/4 inch higher than Wednesday's storm and that was off the charts.

As you can see, PWATs are in the range of 350 to 450 pecent of what's normal Monday morning.

Here's what the storm looks like on the EURO Monday morning. It's unbelievable to me that all that precipitation (even as far north as Minnesota) is rain. That is highly unusual for a storm of that intensity in February.

The EURO is suggesting rains of 1-2 inches.

So too is the GFS.

One last thing I'll say about the impending wet pattern is that it's well supported by the MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation). It's currently in phase 7 and projected to remain there on the GFS through March 8th. Note the precipitation analogs for phase 7 highly favor above normal precipitation. That gives me some extra confidence in the idea of wet weather and relatively mild temperatures the next 2 weeks.

Short term with our storm departing Thursday, any mixed precipitation leaves the north early. Mostly cloudy skies prevail with temperatures in the 30s until a cold front drives readings into the 20s by evening. That sets us up for a cold dry day Friday with lows in the teens and highs back in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Take heart in the fact that the cold starts lifting out Friday as warm air advection kicks in late. It may be accompanied by some light snow but little if any accumulation is expected. By Saturday we are back in the 30s and low 40s. Sunday ahead of the next storm the far south may hit 50 near a warm front. The rest of the area remains in the low to mid 40s before rain quickly pushes across the area Sunday night and Monday.

That's all for now, have a solid day and roll weather...TS

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