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ABOUT FACE...

WHIP IT GOOD...

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NEW MONTH, NEW BRAND OF WEATHER....

October was a warm month for many around the Midwest. Temperatures in my area averaged 4 to nearly 6 degrees above normal which is a significant departure!

The first 20 days of October were glorious with lots of 70s and 80s.

That was part of a warm period that went back to June. The 90 day temperature departure looks like this.

Things have changed here recently with a healthy cold snap that's kept highs in the 40s the past 3 days. Lows have been downright wintry. In Cedar Rapids November lows have been 24, 21, and 20.

Wednesday morning was especially fresh with most spots in the low to mid 20s. Lowden reported 18 degrees and Waterloo, Oelwein, and Monticello were right behind at 19.

ABOUT FACE...

Ironically, now that the cold has caught up with us it's getting set to pull out just in time for the coming weekend. Temperatures will start their recovery Thursday and highs will steadily build through Sunday. The EURO meteogram has highs near or in the 60s Saturday through next Tuesday

The GFS brings more clouds and some precipitation into play as early as next Tuesday and begins cooling things about a day earlier. Still, both models indicate above normal temperatures for several days Saturday through the early portions of next week.

As for rain, I see nothing through next Monday. After that, I suspect the GFS is a bit fast bringing it into play Tuesday, roughly a day earlier than the EURO. A potentially unsettled and wetter period is possible Wednesday through Friday of next week.


A STRONG STORM ON THE HORIZON?

Focusing on the storm threat next week, indications are that energy will dive in off the Pacific and spin up a closed low somewhere in the central U.S. You can watch the system wrap up at 500mb next Wednesday and then grind its way east across the country at a leisurely pace.

The slow movement, moisture, and strong dynamics could make it a good precipitation producer. However, at this distance models have a difficult time resolving phasing between the northern and southern branches of the jet and for that reason I'm very cautious about where this thing goes and its overall impacts on the Midwest. Right now the ensembles of both the EURO and GFS show quite a bit of range in potential solutions but their means point to widespread precipitation. I have concerns and will believe the wetter outcomes when I see more of it.


The EURO ensemble mean precipitation totals.

The GFS ensemble mean precipitation totals.

Current data also indicates there could be enough cold air that some snow or flurries could be found in some part of the Midwest. However, (if and where) is highly dependent on a fully phased system with a strong cold air draw in the northern branch of the jet stream. If future runs indicate a less phased upper air structure snow chances are slim and none. For reasons I've discussed, I can't buy into any solution this far out but my gut tells me to lay low on the future of this storm in terms of rain and snow until we get better data sampling towards the weekend. It could end up being little more than a nothing burger in terms of precipitation. However, I do think whatever happens it will bring a healthy shot of cold air around November 13th-14th.


In the meantime, were headed for a a fine weekend. I've got some leaves to deal with and things to bring in. This looks like a fine time to winterize. Winter is knocking on the door. That's a wrap for now. Thanks for your time and if you appreciate the site please consider a donation by clicking the link below. The future of TSwails is in your kind and caring hands. Roll weather....TS


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