BEEN A LONG STRANGE JOURNEY...
Back in January we knew we had a long slog ahead of us. The road to spring is always a long one and this year the journey has been especially strange. Easter was colder than Christmas which should tell you something right off the bat. Here's the temperature departures for the year so far.
We've saved the worst for last. Here's the departures over the past 30 days.
That's led to one of the coldest April's on record. Much of my area in the top 5-10 out of 130 years of records.
I think we can all agree some warmer weather would be a pleasant change. And, that's exactly what the doctor has ordered for us here in the Midwest. This is the 6-10 day temperature outlook. Odds from the Climate Prediction Center are 80-90 percent the period will be above normal. I say they are closer to 100 percent.
Overall, CPC thinks the warmer weather will come with near normal precipitation. That would be great.
Looking at the coming summer, we have the temperature and precipitation anomalies for the United States in years following a spring La Nina like 2022. You can see warmer than normal temperatures over much of the western and NC U.S. The analogs suggest precipitation will be well below normal over the entire Midwest.
These are patterns based on the historical data, from previous such events. But now lets take a look at the actual long-range forecast, and see what the model calculations show in terms of the La Nina influence.
We typically use the ECMWF first, as its proven to be the most reliable model in the long-range category. In reality, a lot can change with the individual year/season. But generally, the EURO model is at the top as far as “skill” goes. Over North America, we see warm anomalies over much of the central and western United States. The southeastern United States however does feature a neutral area. All of this is consistent with the historical La Nina summer pattern discussed above.
The precipitation forecast over North America shows drier conditions over the central and northern United States. But parts of the southeastern and southwestern United States, and eastern Canada have a higher chance of wetter conditions.
Overall, a warmer and drier summer is expected across the southern and central United States in this long-range outlook. We may be trending in that direction now as we begin the transition to the summer season.
Looking at the NOAA official Summer temperature outlook, most of the United States is warmer than normal. The core of the warmer anomalies are so far focused on the western half of the United States.
The official Summer precipitation forecast is quite similar to the EURO forecast. Most of the northwestern and central United States is projected to have a drier summer season.
I am somewhat concerned about the impacts a warmer and drier summer would have on agriculture as the NW half of my area is experiencing abnormally dry soil conditions going into the growing season. It looks very bleak over the central and southern Plains where extreme to exceptional drought is ongoing. That could fuel a very hot summer and a stout heat dome over that section of the nation. If it reaches the magnitude expected, some of that hot dry air could very well build into the Midwest from time to time this summer. Certainly something to keep tabs on in the coming month.
MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND
Overall, pretty good weather is expected. With Friday's storm out of the picture, mostly sunny skies Saturday will allow a spectacular day with light winds and highs pushing 70. Sunday (Mother's Day), warm air advection will drive showers and storms out west that will advance towards the region later in the day. These look to be in a decaying state and may only make it into my western counties in Iowa. Any small chances would be well west of the Mississippi and in the afternoon. Depending on the amount of cloud cover, highs areawide should end up again in that 65-70 degree range.
Then it's time to crank up the heat. Southwest flow kicks in Monday and holds tight through next week. Very warm July-like temperatures will explode on the scene next week and highs Monday through Thursday will likely be in the upper 80s to potentially 90. Here's the 5 day temperature anomalies Monday through Friday. Wow, talk about sudden summer!
Here's the highs the EURO projects for Tuesday.
Notice too the high water vapor levels. Dew points well into the 70s will provide us with our first hefty dose of humidity.
Add that humidity to highs around 90 and heat index values rise to 95 to 100 Tuesday.
I'm still watching Monday night and especially Tuesday evening or night for a storm threat as a couple disturbances ride the edge of the heat induced cap southeast. CAPE is extremely robust Tuesday indicating exceptional instability and would produce some robust updrafts if storms can fire.
As for the warmth, it appears it will last into Saturday of next weekend and then a sharp change to cooler conditions is possible. Here's the long range meteograms showing projected temperatures. I have concerns readings may be too warm after May 14th but up to that point I have no complaints with what's depicted.
With that, I'll wrap this up. To all you mother's out there, including my own, have a fantastic weekend. The work, effort, devotion, and love of a mother should never be taken for granted. I've been blessed and spoiled by my mother and she's been instrumental in all of my life's achievements. Thanks and love to you mom. Roll weather...TS