BEST WEATHER ON THE PLANET...
Every once in awhile our weather reaches an inflection point where it reverses patterns and in essence takes a deep breath. In doing so it relaxes, recharges, and brings us some of the best weather on the planet. That's certainly been the case the past couple of days with comfortable temperatures and low humidity dominating the Midwest. Just look at these temperatures at noon Monday.
Just as nice, dew points at the same time were in the upper 40s to low 50s. Notice those nasty sultry dew points in the 70s have been squashed well to the south thanks to a large high pressure over the Great Lakes.
The mid-day Satellite clearly shows the impacts of the dry air with expansive areas of sunshine.
Just as impressive is the overall lack of precipitation around the middle of the nation.
Overall, the quiet weather pattern looks to last through Thursday. The north could scare up a shower or thunderstorm Tuesday night as a front grazes that part of the region. However, chances appear best (only 30-40%), closer to HWY 20. The south should stay high and dry. Here's what several models are suggesting for rain totals through the day Thursday. What little is shown comes Tuesday night.
The 3k NAM
Temperatures should inch up a bit Tuesday reaching the low 80s in most areas. Wednesday and Thursday the warming trend continues with highs gradually hitting the mid to upper 80s, perhaps 90 in the far south. Humidity will increase as well but for the most part stays no worse than moderate with dew points remaining in the mid 60s.
The most organized period for rain comes Thursday night or Friday morning when a front eases its way in from the northwest. As is always the case, the timing of the front will be a critical factor in determining instability and how active or widespread showers and storms turn out to be. There should be enough CAPE for some healthy updrafts Thursday night which could bring a stronger storm or two to my northern counties. It's too early to know the mesoscale details that will drive the set-up. What's left of those storms exit in a weakening form Friday morning.
After that, the forecast gets a little muddled going into the holiday weekend. Models are having challenges deriving the amount of high pressure that resides over the Midwest Saturday through the 4th. That's critical in the sense that it determines the location of a stationary front that acts as the focus for showers and storms. The general consensus is the front holds in Missouri keeping any extreme heat and humidity just to the south Saturday and Sunday relegating my area to seasonal summer conditions and minimal if any precipitation.
So while the far south may be susceptible to a shower of storm, especially Sunday, the bulk of any rain should focus more on Missouri, closer to the boundary. Around the 4th (Monday), the boundary begins to make a push north and with it comes an increased chance for showers and storms. They may hold off until the night of the 4th at which point they could be scattered around through at least Tuesday of next week. Again, I want to stress we're just too far out to say with any confidence when the greatest chances will occur. As a result, I'm inclined to include the threat of showers and storms in the Monday-Wednesday period (July 4th, 5th, and 6th) keeping prospects low and coverage scattered, at least at this point. Not everybody will see the rain and where it does fall, the duration looks minimal with lots of dry hours. We will get a far better handle on specifics in the next 24-48 hours.
By the way, that MCS that formed and soaked my central counties last Friday night and Saturday morning did what systems like it are noted for. It cranked out a band of 3-5 inch rains that produced some minor flash flooding and as much rain in one night as some places see during the entire month. You can easily decipher who experienced the deluge by the Doppler estimates below.
Steve Gottschalk, an experienced NWS observer with 60 years of detailed records indicated nearly 4 inches of rain from the MCS in his town of Lowden, Iowa (located in Cedar Country). He relates that in his extensive records, that 5 of Lowden's 6 worst June floods have occurred during the last 7 days of the month. Also since 1990, 3 of Lowden's 5 worst June floods occurred during the week of the Last Quarter moon. Hmmm...very interesting!
That's what I have for you on what promises to be another fine late June day. Embrace the kind gently nature of it and as always, roll weather...TS