BIG TICKET WEATHER AS WINTER THRIVES...
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BIG TICKET WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK
Make no mistake about it, we are in a pattern that is really ripe for impactful winter weather. That includes snow, wind, cold, and harsh wind chills. Right out of the gate today a fast moving but potent winter storm will bring all those factors into play by Thursday afternoon. Precipitation will start as light rain in the morning and quickly change to snow as the cold air arrives by afternoon. Winds gusting to 35-40 mph along with rapidly falling temperatures will cause considerable blowing and drifting snow later in the day. Brief periods of near whiteout conditions are possible at times in the open country Thursday afternoon and night. A winter storm warning is in effect for much of the area near and north of I-80 where 3-5" of snow is likely. A few local spots could see 6" in a narrow band north and west of the Quad Cities. Further south winter weather advisories are in effect where snow totals of 1-2" are anticipated near and south of HWY 34. Further west a blizzard warning is in effect for parts of central Iowa. The current headlines from the NWS.
Before I show what models are depicting for snow, this is the official NWS forecast. I greatly respect the work they do in the office but I have some doubts about these totals. Who really knows? However, my humble opinion is that these numbers are on the low end, especially in eastern Iowa.
To support my point I'm putting up the snowfall forecasts, which again are not official. This is guidance that allows us to develop a forecast. If you notice, the output is certainly different than what's officially shown with higher totals in Iowa The data also supports larger amounts further south down towards HWY 34.
The 0Z GFS came in strong Wednesday night and paints a healthy swath of snow in the 4-7" range from just south of I-80 all the way to Wisconsin. Just one model.
The EURO is similar with the placement of the snow band but not as heavy on the amounts.