BLACK FRIDAY DEAL...
Those clouds and spotty light showers and sprinkles that passed through the area Thanksgiving have cleared the area. That means I have a black Friday weather deal for you today you won't want to pass up. (Actually, you don't have any choice but it still sounds good). So here it is, sunshine, light winds, and mild temperatures that include highs of 50-55 degrees. Not bad a bad deal for November 25th.
At least for now, we are clearly in the throes of a phase 6 MJO oscillation that in large part is responsible for the mild temperatures of the past few days.
In general, the mild pattern should hold through Tuesday of next week. Beyond that, if you follow the dotted green lines you can see we are headed for phase 7 and 8 which in December signal a return to cold. Here are the temperature analogs for both phases.
Additionally, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO), and north Atlantic Oscillation (AO) are also in negative phases which teleconnect to cold as well. Below the AO is strongly negative indicating a weakening of the polar jet stream which allows cold to penetrate deeper into the nation.
The negative EPO implies ridging over the eastern Pacific which forces a cold northerly component to the jet.
The negative NAO is linked to cold conditions in the central and eastern U.S.
See below how the negative phase of the NAO is cold and the positive mild.
If you just go off teleconnections, the evidence is convincing that we are setting up for another period of very cold weather around the second week of December. Before that, the middle of next week a healthy shot of cold air should precede the Arctic stinger which arrives later on.
Something else that's interesting is the trend for a negative PNA.
The negative PNA would promote the mean storm track through the middle of the nation with troughing over the west and ridging over the east. At times that can result in mild conditions over the Midwest if the key teleconnections we discussed above are in warmer phases. However, in this case the cold should be pushing and it could set the Midwest up for a stormy pattern which would have the potential to yield snow. The big question is precisely where in the Midwest? More on that in coming days.
Just to emphasize, what I've outlined above is still speculative as models are grappling to obtain the real-time data that would go into its output and support the theory of cold. I am expecting this to show up in modeling the next several days if the teleconnections materialize as indicated.
One thing is for sure, we are now entering the active pattern the PNA suggests with 2 systems on the table the next 6 days. The next arrives later Saturday night and Sunday morning. Initially, temperatures will be too warm for snow despite a perfect track for it. However, dynamic cooling could at least for a time change the rain to snow before it ends Sunday, especially in the NW. Little if any accumulation is expected at this time. Here's what the EURO and GFS indicate for precipitation totals. The heavier amounts are aimed at the southeast half of my area.
The EURO
The GFS
The following system Tuesday and Wednesday does not look to be a big precipitation producer but at this point there are some key issues regarding track that make this system low confidence. The GFS is further south and the wetter solution and even kicks out some snow. The EURO tracks the storm center right over the region which dry slots the area, not only eliminating snow but precipitation altogether. I think it might take another day or two to resolve the situation with better data in the grids.
Both the EURO and GFS do agree that this disturbance opens the door for a strong surge of cold air next Wednesday. It looks like highs next Thursday may not get out of the upper 20s to low 30s if trends hold. Wind chills will be much colder than that.
Well, it appears like some interesting and challenging weather is in our future as we approach and head into the month of December. Just the way I like it. Take advantage of the beautiful day ahead and as always, roll weather...TS
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