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The new week is off to a fresh start around the Midwest with temperatures Monday morning in the 40s,. A few high clouds snuck in during the overnight but overall its a good start to the day. Those clouds by the way are the first signs of our next weather maker which is destined to produce some rain. It will also keep us in unseasonably cool conditions much of the week.

For many parts of the central Midwest, a good rain is actually needed. In the Quad Cities for example, just 1.17 inches of rain has fallen this may. More than 80 percent of that occurred May 2nd. Since then the last 3 weeks have been dry with just 0.29 inches in the bucket.

As a result if the dry period, May rain deficits are growing around many of my counties as you can see below.

For quite some time models have been pointing towards a healthy rain event Tuesday and Wednesday but recently have shown a trend to track the surface low right over eastern Iowa. That does bring rain but it also keeps the heavier deformation zone to the northwest and the instability for strong thunderstorms to the southeast. It also brings into play the dreaded dry slot which may cut off significant precipitation after the initial wave of warm advection rains Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. In essence, all of these factors would serve to lower rainfall amounts. Both the EURO and GFS are hinting at that possibility. Here's what they are now suggesting for rain during the duration of the event. Note how the lowest amounts a favored to occur over my area. Some hefty amounts are shown just to the west in Iowa.



Cool temperatures will accompany the system initially Monday and Tuesday when highs will be in the low to mid 60s, a good 10-15 degrees below normal. However, as the storm tracks into Iowa we will enter or be close to the warm sector Wednesday and could go well into the 70s before cooling to the 60s on its backside Thursday.

After that we appear to be in a position for warmer weather to kick in just in time for the holiday weekend. We still have some minor discrepancies with the timing of the warm air and any impacts from a couple weak fronts that graze the region. The EURO remains the warmest solution with the GFS a notch behind. Here's the meteograms for both models.. Notice the nice jump in high temperatures just in time for the Memorial Weekend.



While a shower or thunderstorm is a possibility Saturday or Sunday, it's nothing that would last long and there should be plenty of dry hours (that's if rain even falls which I'm not seeing strong indications of right now). We're just going to need to watch trends later this week to get better consistency on timing and instability before we can fine tune the details.

By the way, this is transition week for me. I am moving into a home I'm renovating in East Dubuque, Illinois. It's a project but its got a stunning view of the Mississippi which is about as good as it it gets. Carolyn and I are really excited about this place and a new chapter in our lives. Here's the views from our place. You can see both the HWY 20 bridge to Galena to the south and the 151 bridge to Madison to the north. At night we look directly over the city of Dubuque and all its lights. Day or night its spectacular and man can you see the storms coming. Can't wait for a big lightning display over the water!

Aside from moving myself, my Daughter Eden is getting her first apartment in Davenport and I'm moving her in as soon as I finish getting into mine. Doesn't that sound like fun! Due to all the chaos, my lovely assistant RK (Rebecca Kopelman) will be helping out frequently this week as I shuttle back and forth. You are in capable hands and I thank her for taking over for a few days. Roll weather...TS


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