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We're in the throws of the long advertised (MJO driven weather pattern), that features below normal temperatures across the Central Midwest. Early risers will again see frost Tuesday morning from Nebraska to Vermont within the advisories posted below, that does include my northern counties from roughly HWY 30 north.

Conditions like that are pushing the envelope for so late in the season. Most years the average last 32 degree reading ranges from April 5 to April 21st from south to north.

There have been years when the last freezing temperature occurred way back in March. This next graphic shows the earliest and latest 32 degree temperatures for some select cities within my area.

Here's the same data plotted on a county map. (First the earliest date of the last 32)

Now the latest 32 degree freeze. For most area that's May 15 to the 28th.

These are the temperature departures we've been dealing with the past few days.

With the 500mb jet remaining in this position through Friday highs will remain in the 60s the rest of the week.

These are the average temperature departures on the GFS the next 5 days. That's a lot of cool air. Something you would not want to see in the dead of winter. Thank goodness the sun is as strong now as it is in early August. That will take some of the edge off the chill in the afternoons. Nights though will be very crisp in the 30s and 40s.

Days 5-10 are showing some improvement.

By day 10-15 we are back to normal which means low to mid 70s. Bring it!

It now looks like precipitation is out of the forecast until Saturday as high pressure and cool dry air dominate the remainder of the week. At some point, return flow moisture will make a run at the area Saturday or Sunday bringing the chance of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Overall there is poor agreement in amounts and timing between the GFS and EURO so confidence is low at this stage in the game how the weekend plays out. Clouds and rain could also have a big impact on temperatures holding readings 10 degrees cooler in a worst case wet scenario.

For now, the EURO shows this for total rainfall through Sunday afternoon.

The GFS is a little more generous.

Plenty of time to figure the angles in coming days. Meantime, this cool weather is not allowing me much satisfaction. I'm ready for pleasant nights and warm days. I could get all of that chilly junk any time I wanted in Maine. Roll weather...TS


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