CONDITIONS GOING DOWNHILL...WINTER STORM UPDATE

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CONDITIONS GOING DOWNHILL

The long awaited winter storm is now kicking in around the area. Rain has been falling south of I-80 since mid-afternoon. Near and north of I-80 freezing rain has created a glaze. North of that, snow is falling. About 1/10th of an inch of freezing rain in Cedar Rapids where that has changed to snow. I also see snow reported in Davenport. The freezing line is moving south as it was expected to and the ice and rain will gradually change to snow as the night wears on in other areas further south.

Here's a picture of ice accumulating in the Quad Cities from an old acquaintance Matt Hammill.

Models have been arriving in this evening and they are supporting my thoughts from earlier this afternoon. I will show you the new output and give you my opinions below. I will start with the new EURO.

The latest HRRR

The 3K NAM

The 12K NAM

Truth be told there is very good agreement that north of a line from near Tama to Muscatine and on to Kewanee 4-6" of snow is looking likely. There is some enhanced (frontagenic forcing) showing up that seems to be driving the heavier amounts around 6 inches in a band roughly from I-80 north to HWY 30 from near Cedar Rapids and Iowa City on to the Quad Cities and points east. That may be high by an inch or so but it is evident in every one of the models I've shown. Further south it appears amounts of 1-2" should make it as far south as HWY 34. Most of the accumulating snow will be tonight and Sunday morning as the system grinds off to the east.

The official NWS forecast looks like this and while I may be wrong and don't want to confuse the message, I would lean towards the high end of the range in places like Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, the Quad Cities, Washington, Burlington, and Galesburg. The winter storm warning might be down to I-80 as well. That's just my humble thoughts.

The current advisories.

Well, now it's time to let it all play out. If anything noteworthy develops I will let you know. Roll weather...TS