COOL, IS SOON TO RULE...
Showers and thunderstorms bounced around the region once again Tuesday, a few even bordering on severe. The damp aspect of our weather is tied to an active wave pattern that will keep things unsettled through Friday night. An additional change that's coming will be a noticeable cool-down that could keep highs no better than the 60s once we get past today.
But first some facts about rain. Since March 1st, about the time rain returned on a consistent basis, 35 of the past 68 days in the Quad Cities have seen at least a trace of rain. In other words, 51 percent of the time, (nearly every other day), raindrops have been observed at the NWS office in Davenport. See for yourself.
Over the past 30 days, (ending 7:00am Tuesday), rainfall has been especially heavy south of I-80, where many spots measured 5–8 inches in the bucket. Some local spots are closer to 9 inches.
Thanks to the wetter weather of the past couple months, major improvements are evident on the drought monitor. Compare where we are now on the left, to February 27th, on the right. The Midwest has gone from 73 percent of the region in abnormally dry to extreme drought to 34 percent. That will likely be even lower when the new outlook is issued Thursday.
I'll have more on the upcoming trends in our weather below. But first, a special offer awaits you at my AIRBNB in Galena. That includes new lower rates and 3 nights for the price of 2! These are exclusive rates you won't find anywhere else besides TSwails.com.
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MORE RAIN, WHY NOT?
For the most part, the majority of Wednesday looks to be dry as the region awaits the next system, which is tied to a closed 500mb circulation that spins in from the NW. You can see the cold core of the energy centered over South Dakota at noon Wednesday. As it drifts slowly over the area, it provides the forcing and instability for several rounds of rain Wednesday night through Friday night.
It appears this first wave of rain, which will be the most significant, commences Wednesday evening and lasts at times through Thursday morning. Instability is very limited, so strong storms will not be a concern, although a few thundershowers are possible. More than anything, there will be concentrated lift and forcing for a heavy rain band, especially from I-80 north. Additionally, east winds tug in much cooler air and by Friday morning conditions look rather raw with rain and temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s.
There should be a lull in rain coverage and intensity Thursday morning. However, a new wave of vorticity wraps around the upper air low late Thursday and Thursday night, kicking up another round of showers. Temperature Thursday are not going to go up much and with rain cooled air and a heavy overcast, highs may not get out of the 50s, particularly in the north. It looks to be a crummy day.
How cool Friday is will be determined by the amount of cloud cover. The upper air circulation should still be close enough for at least passing clouds. However, with only spotty to widely scattered showers, highs have a better chance of reaching the low to mid 60s.
Friday night, one final burst of vorticity may graze the northeast with some additional light showers. These should pivot out of the region by Saturday morning, leaving the region with mostly sunny skies but crisp temperatures.
Here's what models are showing for total precipitation Wednesday night through Friday night. Keep in mind, the majority of this comes in the 18-hour period Wednesday night through early Thursday.
The EURO
The GFS
The HRRR
The 3k NAM
As for the weather Mother's Day, it's great on the EURO, not so much on the GFS, (especially across the NE). The discrepancy is tied to a front the EURO locks down over Minnesota, compared to the NW flow disturbance the GFS shows sweeping through my northern counties Saturday. With the more progressive GFS solution, showers would sneak into the area during the day Sunday, impacting all of my area by late afternoon. North of HWY 30, highs could hold in the upper 50s. In the south, where rain holds off until late in the day, highs could reach the low to mid 70s.
On the other hand, the EURO is dry and mild area wide Sunday, with highs that reach the low 70s across the board. That is dramatically different from the GFS, keeping confidence low as to how readings eventually lay out. Personally, I favor the EURO solution, which would make for a pretty good day. Hopefully, I'm picking the right horse. Consistency should improve over the next 24 hours. Stay tuned.
With that, I advise you to enjoy today's mild day with highs in the 70s. We've got a clunker coming up Thursday. Have a stellar day and roll weather...TS
