COOL, RAINY END TO THE WEEK
Hello once again friends, I hope you've been enjoying the beautiful weather the last several days. Temperatures in the low 80s with plenty of sun, and low humidity! What a stunning week. This weekend will feel a bit more reminiscent of autumn as an Upper-Level low will bring considerable cloudiness, showers and cooler temperatures.
Let's start off with a look at the upper-level pattern. An unseasonably-strong low will park over the region which is always a recipe for clouds and scattered, persistent showers. This isn't all bad news as part of the region really needs the rainfall. There may be a few quick showers very early Friday morning but the better chance for more widespread rain will be late Friday and through Saturday.
The show starts as a cold front slides through the region Friday afternoon and evening. With a little bit of instability in place, and favorable wind shear due to the approaching low, there may be a few strong thunderstorms in central and eastern Iowa. The main threat here would be hail and damaging wind gusts if any sustained storms can form.
I will await the run of the HRRR tonight before going into too much detail about the severe threat Friday as I personally don't think it'll be too significant.
The top-rated analogs, or events closest matching the atmospheric state Friday, show minimal potential for severe weather in the area. I'll keep an eye on it regardless.
Showers will continue Friday night and through the day Saturday. Models have inched a bit higher with precipitation, but I still think a widespread 0.5" to 1.0" looks likely for eastern Iowa into northern Illinois. As I stressed previously, there may be pockets of 2.0" if thunderstorms develop. That will be pretty localized and will be hard to pin down for another day or two. Drink it up! Should be a great benefit to the drought.