I'm not making any bones about it, Tuesday is going to be a very ugly day. It's going to look bad, feel bad, and smell bad. Get my drift. Here's what driving the bus, a dynamic spring storm that passes near Bloomington, Illinois Tuesday morning.
That track takes the low well south of my area and puts us squarely in the cold sector within the deformation zone where heavy stratified rains are going to fall. Were this a month or so earlier its the perfect track for a big snow. Watch the low chug along in the animation ending Wednesday evening.
There are three elements of Tuesday's weather that will combine to make it an especially lousy day.
With a heavy overcast, northeast winds, and precipitation through at least the morning, temperatures are not likely to get out of the 40s from about HWY 30 north. The 50 degree line should cut close to I-80. Low 50s are on the table in the far south. The HRRR shows these readings at noon.
Here's the accompanying temperature departures which are shown running 15 to 18 degrees below normal.
North of the low where we are situated, NE winds of 15-30 will be blowing. Throw those into already chill temperatures and you create wind chills that will be in the 30s and 40s all day. Enough said about that.
The system has adequate moisture and strong sustained forcing. The steady light to moderate rains will add up and most areas should see amounts in the 3/4 to 1.25 inch range. Here's what models are suggesting.
The 3k NAM
WPC even depicts a marginal risk of excessive rains over the south. I don't see that being a concerning issue.
There you have it, all the ingredients for a coyote ugly day! Enjoy and don't chew your leg off!
Compounding the issue is the fact we get to do it all over again later Wednesday night and into Thursday. (Before that Wednesday looks to a pleasant day in the 60s). However, the late week system has many of the features Tuesday's does so I expect a similar result, especially if the GFS is correct on the track. The EURO is just far enough north to keep temperatures a little warmer, especially in the south.
It means the period Monday through Friday will have cumulative departures that look look like this over the 5 day period.
FLASH...THIS JUST IN, A WARMER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
Without a doubt temperatures will warm this weekend and should reach 80 Monday. If the EURO is correct, the warmth lasts much of next week with 4 days in the 80s! Here's it's meteogram for the Quad Cities. Oh my, that gives me a little quiver.
As nice as that is, the GFS ends the party quickly reverting back to the pattern we've been in for weeks Tuesday. Here's what it's solution shows. Quite a different tale.
I have optimism regarding the EURO's warm-up. But, this pattern has been so hard to break for weeks I caution that it would not surprise me to see the cooler idea of the GFS have merit. At least for now, it's nice to see one of the major models showing some real spring weather. Fingers and toes crossed the EURO is on the right track.
That's the latest and greatest for now. Keep the coat and umbrella handy through the morning. Roll weather...TS