DELAYED BUT NOT DENIED...
The extreme heat that brought 100 degree highs to southwest Iowa Monday was delayed a bit from reaching its full potential in my area Monday. However, it will not be denied Tuesday and everybody can look forward to a real burner.
A heat advisory has been issued for the entire region as the combination of highs in the mid to upper 90s and dew points in the 70s creates oppressive and perhaps dangerous conditions, especially in the afternoon. Drink plenty of fluids (water in particular) if you are doing anything strenuous outdoors!
NBM highs (national blend of models) are projected to reach as high as 98 Tuesday. A couple spots could give 100 a run, especially if dew points mix out.
Heat index values are likely to reach 105 degrees in many areas. The worst case numbers are closer to 107 which would warrant an upgrade to excessive heat warnings in some of my area.
The last time a high actually reached 100 in the Quad Cities was back on July 6th of 2012...nearly 10 years ago. By the way, since records were established back in the late 1800's in the QCA, highs have reached 100 or above 121 times. The all-time warmest was 106, July 14th in the unrelenting heat of 1936.
Here's a list of the 10 hottest temperatures ever in the Quad Cities. Notice 8 of the 10 records came in 1936.
Monday we were on the northern fringe of the heat with the 90 degree highs just catching my southern counties.
Notice the big jump we make Tuesday over the Midwest with 90s pushing all the way to Lake Superior.
From the looks of things, we continue to fry Wednesday before a cold front comes to the rescue Wednesday night. Here's what the EURO shows for highs Wednesday before it arrives. Heat index values will again be near or just above 100.
For the most part rain chances appear low until Wednesday night due to very warm air aloft which will generate a stout thunderstorm prohibiting cap. There is a slight chance a few could graze the area near and NW of Cedar Rapids to Dubuque early Wednesday morning but it will be tough to get them any further southeast than that until the front arrives later that night.
As for severe storms, those should avoid the area Tuesday but certainly could make and appearance in some areas Wednesday evening. Instability and buoyancy will be significant and there should be enough shear for some organized supercells. That situation will become clearer with time. Here's what SPC has outlooked for a severe risk Tuesday and Wednesday.
The cold front does not contain a great deal of cool air but it will drive out the deep moisture that will make the next couple of days so uncomfortable. Thus, temperatures will remain warm, a few degrees above normal Thursday through Saturday. However, the dew points will go from the 70s Wednesday to the upper 50s and low 60s and that will make things far more comfortable.
After getting beaten back south for a couple days, the heat dome rebuilds and 500mb heights look like this by next Monday. That's going to send highs well into the 90s in the long range 8-14 day period.
The Climate Prediction Center indicates strong chances of heat in its 6-10 day outlook.
Here's what the NBM blend shows for temperatures through June 23rd. Plenty of summer there.
One thing that's concerning for areas that are short on moisture is the long range rainfall projections. The EURO has 2 week deficits in the 1.5 to 2 inch category over the next 15 days. That covers a large chunk of the central and eastern U.S. With the anticipated heat, that will suck up the top soil moisture in a hurry. Hopefully we can get some timely and well placed rains to get us through until rain prospects are better.
Well, that's it for the here and now. I'll be headed for the plastic pool and sprinkler later today with a well chilled beverage! Keep your cool and roll weather...TS