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DREARY AND COOL CONTINUES TO RULE...


From Reuters...


LONDON — Last year (2020) tied with 2016 as the world's warmest year on record, rounding off the hottest decade globally, as the impact of climate change intensified, the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service said on Friday.

After an exceptionally warm winter and autumn in Europe, the continent experienced its hottest year on record in 2020, while the Arctic suffered extreme heat and atmospheric concentrations of planet-warming carbon dioxide continued to rise. Scientists said the latest data underscored the need for countries and corporations to slash greenhouse gas emissions quickly enough to bring within reach the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement and avoid catastrophic climate change.

"The extraordinary climate events of 2020 and the data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service show us that we have no time to lose," said Matthias Petschke, Director for Space in the European Commission, the E.U.'s executive arm.

In 2020, temperatures globally were an average of 1.25 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) higher than in pre-industrial times, Copernicus said. The last six years were the world's hottest on record.

WHAT TO EXPECT GOING FORWARD...


A very stagnant mid-winter weather pattern remains locked in place around the central Midwest leading to more of the same, stratus/clouds, some fog in spots, and seasonally cold temperatures. A persistent subsidence inversion around 5,000 feet should hold through at least Sunday keeping the sensible weather pretty much the same. In other words, dreary and cool continues to be the rule. On the positive side, at least it will be dry. The EURO shows this for

temperatures through Monday.

If that high temperature range holds and I'm betting it will, going back to Christmas that will make it 19 consecutive days where the high in Cedar Rapids stayed within the range of 21 and 35 degrees. That is quite unusual and shows how stagnant the pattern is with minimal changes in the overall air mass. The past 5 days the range has been just 8 degrees from 25 to 33.

COLDER DAYS AHEAD?


We should see a change in the large scale pattern later in the coming week when models indicate a buckle in the jet that allows colder air to dig into the eastern 2/3rds of the nation. Again today the GFS has been the most aggressive with this development. It has been consistently showing an Arctic intrusion around January 18th. Notice the readings it is showing January 18-24th.

On the other hand, the EURO is far less aggressive on the cold and let's hope it's got the right idea because the GFS is downright ugly. Here's what the EURO indicates for long range temperatures. A far more tolerable pattern.

The discrepancy on the depth of the cold air is troubling and I would say keeps confidence low regarding just how cold we get. I can see valid arguments for both the GFS and EURO. However, until I see the EURO get on the wagon of bitter cold I'm very leery to stray too far from the EURO. In the end, maybe it's more of a compromise between the two solutions. I'm still watching the evolution of the trends and we can expect to see some movement towards one of the models in coming days. Have a fine weekend and roll weather...TS

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