ENDLESS SUMMER, OCTOBER'S VERSION...
We all know the idea of endless summer is a pipe dream. Winter is coming and when it does, look out. However, after a modest cool-down the next few days (still above normal though), the signs are all there that we've got at least a another week where temperatures will remain at very comfortable levels. More on that later. First let's talk rain.
All week we've been waiting for a slow moving disturbance to eject out of the southwest. It's been cut-off from the westerlies and has been vacillating around for days waiting for a kicker. Here it is on the GOES satellite Friday night. The moisture flow is evident but it's been focused just to the west.
Look at all the rain that's fallen from central Iowa into the Plains over the past 72 hours. Little if any of that has made it into my area as of midnight Friday.
The system is expected to open up and lift E/NE. However, as it does that it starts to get sheared apart and with time redevelops further south. That weakens the forcing and limits the time it can impact my area. So, instead of seeing the 1-3 inch totals that have been common out west, amounts here will be substantially lower.
With regards to timing, most of the rain that falls occurs in two periods. One is in the process of coming to an end Saturday morning only to be followed by another window of opportunity Saturday night and Sunday morning. Between those chances, totals in the range of 1/10 to 3/10ths of an inch are likely in many areas. There is the chance that some pockets of heavier rain, perhaps a 1/2 inch or more are possible but they look relatively small in coverage. Nothing to write home about but its rain and in some parts of the region its a very valuable commodity right now. Through October 1st at the NWS office in Davenport, measurable rain has been reported on just 3 of the past 31 days. The largest single day total just .32 inches. Steve Gottschalk in Lowden tells me his largest total in the past 4 weeks is just .16 inches.
At this time, these are the amounts that models are forecasting through Sunday evening. I want to stress there will be far more dry hours than wet ones, especially during the daylight hours.
The EURO
The GFS
The 3K NAM
The 12K NAM
The Weather Prediction Center blend.
With all the clouds and scattered precipitation temperatures will be cooler, staying mainly in the low to mid 70s (perhaps a few upper 70s Saturday) through Thursday. Rain chances depart Monday-Tuesday but could return again Wednesday and Thursday depending on the track of the system that's forecast to redevelop to the south. Most of the guidance is now showing that potential. Will need to watch that trend in coming days.
Anyway, if you look at the average daily temperatures the next 10 days its pretty clear that we are in for October's version of endless Summer.
Nothing like ending on a positive note. Have a great weekend everyone and by all means, roll weather....TS
