HAPPY THANKSGIVING...
Wow, temperatures really took off Wednesday on what turned out to be an absolutely fantastic day. Everybody enjoyed highs in the 50s with Iowa City reaching 59 and the Quad Cities 58. I was so inspired to be outside that I took run and even put up some outdoor Christmas lights. My dog Nimbus joined in as he laid in the grass and watched with one eye shut and the other open. I did it all in a sweatshirt and gym shorts, something that would have been impossible just a few days ago.
HAPPY THANKSGIVING
Before I go any further, Happy Thanksgiving everyone. I've got plenty to be thankful about in my life and I hope the same is true for each of you.
Unfortunately, our weather won't be nearly as spectacular today thanks to increasing moisture and a weak disturbance riding northeast in a developing longwave trough over the Rockies. Overall this isn't much of a system but it will have just enough kick to saturate the atmosphere and squeeze out clouds, drizzle, and spotty light showers, especially in the morning. The day won't be a looker like we enjoyed yesterday. Even so, any rain will be quite light (maybe a couple hundredths of an inch) with many other spots seeing nothing more than sprinkles or drizzle. Readings will be a bit cooler but low 50s is still a bargain November 24th. The EURO indicates this for rainfall amounts...not much!
If things go well. clouds may thin out late Thanksgiving, most certainly at night, setting the stage for a better day black Friday. Highs will be similar in the upper 40s to low 50s. With sunshine and a fairly light wind regime it's going to be a keeper.
A STRONGER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT...
The daytime hours Saturday will be fine, however an increase in clouds will be noted in the afternoon as a strong system kicks out of the southern Plains allowing rain to develop Saturday night. The GFS today is the most amplified bringing a good rain of 1/2 inch to much of the region, even high amounts in SE Iowa. Here's its projected rainfall totals.
The EURO is a little further south on the track keeping the heavier rains in far SE Iowa and WC Illinois. Even so, much of the area is still under the gun for 1/4 to 1/2 inch amounts.
The difference in track between the two models is less than 70 miles and a little shift one way or the other the next 24 hours could make a significant difference in how much rain falls. I prefer the further SE look of the EURO but concede confidence in any model is lower than I would like to see. I expect Friday's guidance will tighten up on a final solution.
Another system arrives Tuesday night and Wednesday. Rain looks to be the initial precipitation type but there is a chance rain could change to wet snow on the back end of the storm. Since we are almost a week away we'll put this system on the back burner acknowledging it's worth watching in coming days.
Have a fabulous Thanksgiving and roll weather...TS
