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Here we are, the 19th of October enjoying magnificent weather. Not a cloud in the sky Monday and highs in the low to mid 70s. It doesn't get any better than that and as the saying goes, we are living on borrowed time. Every day like this from here on out is a bonus! It's also been great for the harvest after a wet period a week ago set farmers back a few days.

By the way, this trend of mild temperatures has been going on for some time. Here's the temperature departures over the past 30 days.

Just to show how ugly it "can" be at this time of year, here's the first 18 days of October in 2009 and 2019. Both were chilly and featured snow, especially 2019

Look at all the snow the end of 2019 that resulted in a white Halloween. Frightening to be sure.

Well, I certainly don't see any chance of that happening this year but it does appear a cooling trend is in the works midweek that will be accompanied by a few showers. Confidence is high some rain will fall but low regarding how much. In general, the best forcing is to the north and that results in deformation band rains that should be most generous over southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin. Further south, amounts in my are will be influenced by a cold front that pivots through during the late afternoon. The EURO attempts to light up the front north of I-80 with a broken band of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms capable of totals in the 1/4 to 1/2 inch range. The rest of the model suite including the 3K NAM, the GFS, 12K NAM, and WPC blend don't do much with the front and are the lowest on totals, generally keeping amounts around 1/10th of an inch or less. You can see for yourself the various model solutions.


The 3k NAM

The 12K NAM

The WPC blend


For now I am leaning more towards the lower solutions, 1/10" or less. There could be some scattered bands with a bit more, especially north of I-80.

Temperatures should remain in the 70s in most areas through Wednesday. Tuesday will be the warmest day with more sunshine and stronger winds combining with the relatively dry air to produce highs in most areas in the mid 70s (perhaps upper 70s in a few spots). Readings areawide should be a good 12-18 degrees above normal.

Wednesday looks a few degrees cooler with more clouds and scattered showers. Still way above normal though in the low to mid 70s.

Following the cold front temperatures begin a cooling trend that gets highs near or even below seasonal norms. You can see the NW flow Friday at 500mb delivering the chillier air.

Thursday through Saturday appears to be a dry period but Sunday is up for grabs right now. The GFS delivers a decent system into the region that would bring a cool rain. The EURO is far less amplified and essentially dry. While I'm far from certain, I have a pretty strong feeling the GFS is over zealous and may be suffering from some data initialization issues. Still lots of time to sort it out.

I would also add that longer range the pattern looks active with multiple disturbances in the flow out 2 weeks. Here's the GFS precipitation departures through November 3rd. I think the upper air wave train support the idea of near to above normal precipitation during this period.

There you have it, another fine fall day to enjoy before the winds of change being to rustle Wednesday. Soak it up and if you like the insights and effort here, please consider a voluntary donation. The future of TSwails is in your kind and caring hands. Roll weather...TS


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