thumbnail_1 ts baner, future in your hands.png

LOST IN SPACE...

Hope you all had a great Labor Day weekend. The weather was certainly nothing to write home about but at least much of the period was dry. In fact, at my place in Dubuque I had no rain at all and that was the case for much of eastern Iowa. However, from the Mississippi River Valley east there were serious gully washers Saturday that caused some minor flash flooding. A few spots around the Quad Cities south to Burlington picked up nearly 2 inches of rain. Here's the 72 hour rain totals ending Labor Day.

Now we have entered into a period where a large portion of the upper Midwest will be on the dry side until further notice. It seems the region will be lost in space as the major storm tracks remain north or south of our location. It's clear by looking at the projected rain totals over the next 12 days where the primary weather action resides and that is over the southeastern half of the nation. Just look at all the wet weather out that way.

The disturbance that soaks that part of the country looks like this at 500mb. It's a closed low at 500mb that just slowly rolls east, cut-off from the main westerlies that reside over the top near the Minnesota border.

While it's bad for the southeast, it provides quiet weather for us with plenty of subsidence (high pressure) and mild temperatures. Over the next 10 days average departures from norm look like this.

Some of the warmest highs occur this Thursday and Friday when the national model blend indicates highs in the mid 80s. Fortunately moisture is limited so humidity is not a real concern. Overall, just some nice September weather!

The next crack at any meaningful rain does not come until Saturday night or Sunday of the coming weekend. Even that looks minimal due to a variety of negative influences attending the approaching cool front and its forcing. Whatever happens, we're out nearly 6 days and it's a tad too early to write rain off completely. However, early indications are less than impressive and I suspect amounts will come in on the light side. Here's what models are suggesting for rainfall from Saturday night into Sunday.


The NBM (national model blend).

The EURO

The GFS

The Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day outlook also shows the tendency for below normal rainfall over the central U.S. during the period September 11-15th.

In all honesty, there's not much to get excited about the next 6 days as the pattern favors drier than normal conditions. Whether there is rain or not this weekend, temperatures will turn cooler for a time following the frontal passage. After highs in the 80s Wednesday through Saturday, readings return to the 70s Sunday into early next week. Here's what the national blend of models indicates for temperatures through September 16th. It's easy to see the impact of the frontal passage by the significant drop in temperatures Sunday.

Well, I'm searching high and low to make this post interesting but try as I might, I'm running out of fodder. That means nice quiet weather is on the table the rest of the week. Boring but nice. Roll weather...TS

ARCHIVED POSTS
RECENT POSTS