MISSION ACCOMPLISHED, BUT NOT FINISHED...

Every once in awhile a forecast comes together so well that it's worth revisiting. This is what I call "proof of performance". It's an excerpt from a post I put together February 24th, entitled SENDING IN THE 60'S, GROOVY BABY. This was back when we were covered with 10-20" of snow and shivering through record breaking cold. When I put this out, other forecasts were calling for a warming trend, but only a modest one mentioning temperatures reaching the 40s, perhaps 50. My vision was far greater and I went on the record to promote the idea of highs that could reach the 60s around March 8th. It was a bold (and dare I say brave call at the time), what I call the TSwails difference. Take a look.

FEBRUARY 24th

TIME TO PLAY THE SPECULATION GAME...

Since we've all had a heaping helping of winter the last 5 weeks, I wanted to show you some numbers that are a sign of the times and what I consider food for thought. Both the EURO and GFS show highs reaching the 60s out beyond 10 days. They get there at slightly different times but just the same, there is a solid trend showing up. Take a look at the raw model output for highs and I'll expound on how real the potential is below.

The EURO March 8th

The GFS March 9th

First and foremost, to get this accomplished we are going to need an extended lead-up period where temperatures are above normal for 8-10 days to whittle away at the majority of the existing snow cover. The reflective nature of snow makes it a temperature killer and can take 10 degrees off the top of what bare ground would produce, especially in early March.

The EURO indicates that happening showing snow cover going from this today.

To this March 10th

Here's the above normal temperatures that destroy the snow pack. These are the departures from normal in 5 day increments. This runs us out to March 11th.

Day 0-5

Days 5-10 (March 1-6th)

Days 10-15 March 6th-11th).

Why I buy into the trends and could see a day in the 60s around March 8-10th, is tied to teleconnections. Starting with the MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation), see how it is forecast on both the EURO and GFS to roll through phase 7 and 8 the first 10 days of March.

During March those are both mild indicators as the phase correlations show below.

I also like the fact the AO, which was strongly negative during our cold snap, is forecast to flip to a strongly positive phase in March. That means Arctic intrusions are not likely arguing instead for air masses with Pacific influence.