ODDS OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS...

We are still digging out from our big snowstorm here in New England. It was a real doozy too with two states potentially setting all-time records for their largest 24 hour snowfall, those being Pennsylvania and Vermont. Four states had amounts greater that 40 inches with the top total being 44 inches in Newark Valley, NY and Croydon, NH. I am so lucky to have been here to experience this momentous snow occasion. It will be a white Christmas for many in this area thanks to the magnitude of this storm.

If you are wondering what the typical chances of a white Christmas are back in the Midwest I have some odds for you. As you can see below chances are significantly better in my northern counties where north of HWY 20 chances are up near 65%. In the far south, especially south of HWY 34 odds are less than 35%

Your best chances nationally are in the mountainous terrain of the west or northeast as well as the Upper Midwest.

This years chances revolve around a a couple factors. First, there is snow on the ground in some parts of my area, especially in Iowa. With warmer temperatures in the offing the question is, how much melts by the time colder temperatures return just before Christmas. It's possible most if not all of it is melted with the 40s models are depicting Monday through Wednesday. Notice the GFS showing the warmth into the 23rd before a dramatic drop in temperatures Christmas Eve day.

The other possibility for a white Christmas comes with any snow chance that exists with the arrival of the cold air the 24th. Models are struggling as they attempt to resolve the phasing and timing of energy in the digging trough. Until we have some reliable consistency in those issues I'm hesitant to push any one solution. Having said that, the general trends are to restrict any snow to just flurries and snow showers, perhaps a dusting to an inch. The EURO is the most aggressive and stronger in the SE half of my area. We should have a better idea how things are shaping up by Sunday. Here's what the 3 major model ensembles are showing for snowfall through Christmas day.


The EURO

The GFS

The Canadian GEM

Without a doubt there's some discrepancy in the snowfall forecasts and we'll keep an eye on the trends over the weekend to see where it all shakes out. Right now I'm not excited about prospects for any significant snow before Christmas but there's still time for things to change. Right now my odds of a white Christmas in any part of my area stand at 35 percent or less. If nothing else, it will turn much colder just in time for Christmas Eve day and Christmas. That's a wrap for now. Hope you all have a excellent weekend. Roll weather...TS

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