POWERFUL WINTER STORM ARRIVES MONDAY....

A powerful, high impact winter storm will be impacting the Midwest starting Monday. There will likely be an area of 8-12" of snow somewhere in the Midwest with some locally higher amounts possible. There has been more agreement among the models on the track, but any shifts north or south will change where the heaviest snow falls. Right now it appears travel will be greatly impacted late Monday through the Tuesday morning commute.

A low pressure system -- currently located around California -- will move moving south of Iowa and lead to heavy snow and gusty winds.

Snow likely begins after noon on Monday and the heaviest comes in Monday evening through the night. There is currently a Winter Storm Watch out for a portion of my local area but I suspect this will be extended a little further north and east. We'll likely see Winter Storm Warnings by Sunday night or Monday morning.

Here's the latest outlook from the National Weather Service in the Quad Cities showing the impacts expected and the zone where the greatest impacts will likely be. As of the current trends the heavy snow likely falls near and south of Highway 20 with the highest totals (and impacts) near and south of I-80.

So let's take a look at the numbers... and mind you these are just MODELS. They ARE NOT a forecast. These models also include snowfall Saturday night through Sunday morning so actual totals for Monday and Tuesday will likely be a few inches lower.

Here's the latest GFS:

The GFS has been pretty consistent and slowly showing higher totals... in the far south (Iowa/Missouri border and into central Illinois) may have some kinks to work out with ice mixing in and lower snowfall totals.

The Euro:

The Euro has been been consistently showing higher totals and has been pretty consistent on the track in the last several runs.

The NAM:

Hi-resolution NAM:

Then there's the HRRR, which is just starting to get into range of the storm but doesn't get fully through the event. I do want to show it because it shows consistency in the track and the potential for heavy snow:

And now here's the NWS snowfall forecast:

I think the ranges can be fine tuned some, especially with the consistency we're seeing in the data. 6 to 10" south of Highway 20 with 10-12" south of I-80. Some locally higher amounts possible as well.

Bottom line is -- this is going to be a doozy. Difficult travel is expected late Monday through Tuesday morning. We'll keep updating you with the latest so stay tuned and get ready for a whopper!

A SECOND PRINTING OF TERRY'S NEW BOOK IS ON THE WAY...

250 NEW COPIES OF DERECHO 911, IOWA'S INLAND HURRICANE ARE AVAILABLE. Around Christmas we sold the last of the 1500 copies of our book on this historic thunderstorm, the most damaging in U.S. history. Due to continued demand we have ordered a limited number of 250 for those of you interested in having the most authoritative account of this extreme event. You can get yours at derechobook.com

RK