REALITY CHECK INCOMING...
The weather has been beautiful, mild, and record breaking recently. And in November... we know it's not going to last. But Sunday was another day in the 70s - this broke the record for Cedar Rapids with six days in the 70s. It's the most we've ever had in the month of November (previous record: 5 in 1909).
The warmth will continue into Monday with temperatures around 70 once again. That's ahead of a cold front that will arrive that night. It will be breezy and partly to mostly cloudy throughout the day.
The cold front arrives Monday night through Tuesday and will bring showers and thunderstorms. At times rain will likely be heavy.
Temperatures will be dropping through the 60s and 50s during the day
Rain will wind down in the evening. A wintry mix/snow will be possible in parts of northern Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin:
By the end of it we're looking at 0.5 to 2" of precipitation. Which is a lot for a roughly 36 hour period, considering we average around 2" of precipitation for the entire month of November:
And then the cold air rushes in Tuesday night. There will be plenty of sunshine Wednesday and temperatures will be held near normal, around 50:
Temperatures will remain cool through the end of the week and the weekend and the weather will remain fairly quiet. There is the possibility of some warmer air returning around the middle of the month. You can see that reflected in this forecast from the GFS:
The Climate Prediction Center reflects this too with the forecast from November 16-22:
I always take these long range forecasts with a grain of salt this time of year, because things can change fast -- toward the colder. So for now we are going to have a cool down and we'll see what the rest of November has to offer! RK