RIDING HIGH IN THE SADDLE...
Did you not love Tuesday? What an amazing start November. Highs in the 70s, full sunshine and little wind. That my friends was a keeper! And make no mistake about, we'll be riding high in the saddle the rest of this week. The upper air pattern is amplifying as energy floods the western United States carving out a significant trough that looks like this Thursday.
That coincides with a phase 6 MJO oscillation which links to warm temperatures in October and early November. See below.
The residual effects of phase 6 will be with us several more days as you can see by the 5 day average temperature departures ending this coming Sunday.
Wednesday and Thursday we remain high, dry, and toasty with highs both days in the low to mid 70s. However, winds will become a factor as a tightening pressure gradient cranks up 30 mph gusts out of the south. Sunshine should still be prevalent and that puts us in a situation where we could be within 3-4 degrees of records (both highs and record warm lows). It's going to be nice, very nice but breezy! If we are to see a record, Thursday is the day with the best chances. Here's the existing marks that we'll be chasing.
RECORDS HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY November 2nd
Burlington.......79, 1938
Moline.............78, 1938
Cedar Rapids. 77. 1938
Dubuque.........77, 1938
RECORD WARM LOWS FOR THURSDAY November 3rd
Moline............60, 1938
Dubuque........58, 1938
RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY November 3rd
Burlington.......78, 1964
Moline.............77, 1938
Cedar Rapids. 75, 1964
Dubuque.........73, 2008
RECORD WARM LOWS FOR FRIDAY November 4th
Moline.............58, 1975
Dubuque.........54, 1898
The SW flow aloft that brings the warmth also opens up the Gulf of Mexico allowing moisture to slowly but steadily increase. By Friday water vapor levels are projected to reach close to 1.50 inches.
Levels like that are up to 350 percent (3.5 times higher than normal). That's what you look for in a good rain event.
I would say based on the latest trends, that rain holds off until Friday morning before energy arriving from the SW sweeps across the region Friday and Saturday setting the stage for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Those chances will be enhanced by the lift from a slow moving cold front that nudges into the region Saturday. With deep moisture in place another needed and welcome rain is setting up with amounts possibly exceeding 2 inches in spots. Here is what models are suggesting for totals from the weekend system.
THE EURO
The GFS
The National Model Blend