SAILING THROUGH SUMMER...
The hottest month of the year (JULY) is behind us. How time flies. The record book will reflect that as a whole, the 2022 version of July was ordinary. As with any month, it had its ups and downs but the averages (comprised of extremes) smooth out the spikes. Here's the final review as comprised by the NWS in the Quad Cities.
Outside of Dubuque in the north, where temperatures averaged 1 degree above normal, the rest of the region was within 1/2 degree of the norms. In the Quad Cities you can see July readings bounced around a bit with 6 days in the 70s but only 3 in the 90s. I'll take that any year.
The hottest reading of the month in Davenport was only 94. Still no where close to 100. The last time we hit that level was in 2012. In the graphic below you can see across Iowa the year of the last 100+ high across the state.
As the NWS data points out, 4 of the 6 reporting stations did measure below normal precipitation, but not by much. These are the July rainfall totals from around the Cornbelt thanks to the Iowa Mesonet.
Southeast Iowa and a bit of W/Central Illinois is the part of my area that came up on the dry side.
Well, it's August now and a cool front is in the process of clearing the area. As it came through Wednesday it kicked up widely scattered showers and storms. Some places between Cedar Rapids and Dubuque picked up more than 1.5" of rain Wednesday morning. Other spots less than 20 miles away saw little if any. Hit and miss to say the least.
Behind Wednesday's cool front, Thursday and Fridays forecast is seasonal and dry. Dew points will decline slightly but aside from eliminating the rain threat, the front has little impact on temperatures and only slightly lower humidity. That leaves us on the sticky side with highs in the range of 84-88 both days.
TURNING UP THE HEAT THIS WEEKEND
The coming weekend has the earmarks of a good old fashioned summery weekend. Ahead of a developing trough winds will turn to the southwest allowing heat and humidity to increase once again. With no forcing and capping aloft sunshine should be abundant allowing highs to get into the range of 90-95. The model blend indicates this.
Dew points are shown poking into the low 70s allowing heat index values to reach near or slightly above 100. That's good enough to get heat advisories, especially over the southern 2/3rds of my area.
By Sunday moisture is pooling ahead of developing cold front situated in Minnesota. Water vapor is once again shown going well over 2 inches. Here's PWAT's on the GFS.
With deep moisture in place there is likely to be plenty of instability for the front to act on as it enters the picture Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over some part of the Midwest Saturday night and with the slow movement of the front could be in the vicinity into Monday. The precise position of the front will be critical to rainfall as the area near and north of it will be susceptible to the more widespread rains, the region known as "the ring of fire".
Both the EURO and GFS keep the majority of my area in the hot air through Sunday suggesting the heavy rain axis will be more to the north in Minnesota, northern Iowa, and southern Wisconsin. That area is shaping up to see a heavy rain event. My concern is that guidance is overestimating the heat as its been prone to do all summer which would shift the heavier amounts further south. It's early and the final verdict is still subject to change but for now guidance is in good agreement with the heavier amounts up north. We should have a better handle on the set-up in the next 24-48 hours. Here's what models are showing for totals Saturday night into Tuesday of next week.
The model blend
At the conclusion of this event Monday, the EURO indicates a nice punch of cool dry air for the remainder of next week. Highs Tuesday-Saturday remain in the low to mid 80s, near or a bit below normal.
Even the GFS has figured it out. You may recall in my previous post yesterday it showed how pathetically wrong it was for the same period showing readings like this.
Now its got 86 for next Saturday instead of 112. It's still has problems this weekend though popping 101 both Saturday and Sunday in the Quad Cities. Not a chance!
With that, I will call it a post and wrap this thing up. Have yourself a top shelf day and roll weather...TS