SAME OLD SONG AND DANCE...
Most of us were dancing to the same old song Friday, the one that's plenty heavy on a warm dry beat! Here in the Quad Cities it was the 14th consecutive day with no measurable precipitation. It is also makes September one of the driest on record at this point in the month with only .09 inches measured in Moline and 16 out of 17 days rain free.
Just over half way through the month the rainfall deficit for just September is closing in on 2 inches.
September is also turning into a very warm month as well, particularly in regards to high temperatures. In Moline the last 9 days have seen temperatures at or above normal and 13 out of the last 14 days have have a similar distinction.
A few spots did manage to see some brief showers and storms, especially SE of the Quad Cities in the early evening Friday. These developed along a weak boundary that is expected to wash out as it drifts southward Friday night. You can see the arc of clouds associated with the front Friday evening from Chicago back to Burlington.
Here's the spotty showers and storms that largely fizzled out after sunset. Coverage was limited to about 5 percent of my area and while a few spots may have experienced a brief downpour amounts in most locations that saw rain were 1/10" or less. However, SE of Coal Valley towards Orion in Illinois, and SW of Mt. Pleasant and Danville in Iowa, some localized amounts of 1/2 to 1" were measured. If you were in those areas consider yourself lucky to get into these totals as they were very isolated.
The next order of business is the weekend and Monday which also appear to be quite warm and dry. Saturday should be very pleasant behind the front with highs in the low to perhaps mid 80s in a few spots. Humidity will be very low and sunshine abundant. Sunday will see an uptick in humidity and a healthy rise in temperatures. Highs are likely to reach the upper 80s in many areas with the possibility of a 90 degree high in select spots.
Monday gets a bit more tricky as some moisture from post tropical storm Nicholas enters the picture. Clouds will become more prevalent and some widely scattered showers and storms are even possible, especially east of the Mississippi. The extent of the clouds and any rain that might develop will determine how warm readings get. I could see anything in the range of 80 on the low end to 88 on the high end. If there's any prolonged period of sun it will be quite warm and certainly muggy.
Finally, a healthy cold front arrives late Monday night. It will have some moisture to work with but it looks to arrive at an inopportune time as far as instability is concerned. It will also be a fast mover so forcing for precipitation is limited to a short window. So, while scattered showers and storms seem likely, rainfall amounts look light to moderate at best. That could change if the front arrives a few hours sooner. As it stands, these are what the models are showing for rain totals during the period (Monday night or very early Tuesday).
The EURO
The GFS
Once the front departs Tuesday a fresh NW wind scours out and remaining moisture and our weather turns noticeably cooler Tuesday and Wednesday, a little more like fall (which it officially will be at that time). Unfortunately, rain chances look very low the rest of next week.
Last but not least, I just wanted to pass on this poster of my daughter which was displayed near the entrance gate of the Riverdale homecoming game Friday night. Eden is familiar to many of you who have followed my career. She was announced to the world on television less than 3 hours after she was born, sound asleep in my arms. Now she is a senior in high school and a member of the cheerleading squad at Riverdale. Being a parent is not necessarily easy, Eden and I have moments where we have "philosophical" disagreements. As I see it, and have told her numerous times, being a father is a job and the mantra I stress to her over and over is that life is about choices, about making the right ones. The road is never straight, filled with detours and pot holes. She, (as welI as I), have hit a snag or two but overall she's kept the car on the right road and given me plenty of reasons to be proud. Today was another one of those moments.
That's all for now. Make is a sensational weekend and by all means, roll weather...TS
