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SAY HELLO TO WINTER...

The official start to winter is nearly 6 weeks away but your perception of that reality will be seriously challenged in the coming 10 days with the weather that's coming our way. Phase 1 is the cold which surged into the area Friday. That's going nowhere the next 10 days. Phase 2 is the snow potential which increases early next week.


THE WEEKEND...

Without a doubt the weekend is going to be frisky. Highs Saturday and Sunday will hold in the low to mid 30s. Clouds will be prevalent Saturday with some scattered snow showers or flurries a possibility, especially in the north. Clouds should depart Saturday night but will return again late Sunday ahead of a complex disturbance that will likely produce the seasons first accumulating snow early next week.


I regret to say that I had personal issues to deal with Friday and after a day that started well before the chickens I'm just getting to this post. My awareness and detailed analysis of next weeks system is not at the level I prefer but even so, I feel confident enough to say the period Tuesday through Wednesday will be one to watch for snow. A complex interaction of energy in the northern and southern streams of the jet will be responsible for the threat. As it stands now, the northern third of my area stands the greatest risk for snow accumulations of 1-2 inches, something I have pointed out for several days now. The south will see snow as well but here amounts are lower confidence with most guidance indicating amounts of an inch or less. The degree of phasing is the key to where and how much snow will fall. We should have a better handle on that in the next 24 hours. That said, here's what models are currently suggesting for snow totals early next week.


The EURO

The GFS

The national model blend.

Following the snow, the polar jet takes in a strong northerly component that steadily increases the cold air in the pattern. Here's what the 500mb jet stream structure looks like on the EURO next Friday morning. The door is wide open to cold.

Next Friday the EURO is projecting temperature departures that are 18 to 23 degrees below normal.

That results in lows that could be in the single digits north, especially if there is snow cover. Otherwise 10-15 should be attainable come next Saturday morning.

Wind chills will be a factor as well in the range of 0 north to 15 south if the EURO is correct.

So, as I pointed out earlier, it's time to say hello to winter. I'll have more to come on the situation but another long day awaits me tomorrow and I have to cut it short for now. Thanks for your understanding and roll weather...TS

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