SOME CRAZY WEATHER, MUST BE CLOSE TO HALLOWEEN...
Wind, rain, and a wide range of temperature extremes sums up the weather around the Midwest the past couple of days. The most obvious change for many Friday was the return of much colder air. Look at these highs Thursday, a range of nearly 40 degrees. It was even more extreme for the state as a whole. The range from NW Iowa to SE Iowa was 35 to 81 (46 degrees!)
Friday that warm party in SE Iowa was over with hangovers for everyone. Check out the 24 hour change. Most places in SE Iowa near and south of I-80 were 30-35 degrees cooler by nightfall.
At least the rain ended with the arrival of the cold air. It was a wet system though with 2 day rainfall totals of 1-3" common. A few places came in over 5" in NE Iowa. The heaviest over the last 24 hours ending Friday was in the NW half of my area where the numbers looked like this.
Another larger perspective.
Both Saturday and Sunday look to be chilly days with considerable cloudiness. Highs both days should end up close to 40 which is a long way from normal.
The real challenge in this forecast cycle will be precipitation late Sunday into early Monday morning. Recent trends are for colder and drier air and that does two things. One, the dry easterly winds will make it tougher to saturate the atmosphere and get precipitation to the ground. Amounts have gone down, especially on the GFS. The other issue is that with colder profiles the chances are what precipitation does fall in my area will be largely be snow. Here's what the models show for totals. I will comment below.
The 3k NAM
The 12k NAM
Overall, there is good consensus that any accumulating snow it most likely to be found in Iowa as opposed to Illinois where the dry air is a real problem. As you progress west away from the Mississippi amounts slowly increase as do the odds of any accumulations. The GFS which has done a fine job the past week handling the depth of the cold air and its consistent trend for less and less snow in my area is concerning. If it's on the right track, and I'm leaning that way, little if any snow could very well be the end game. As much as I respect the EURO it's snowier solution in eastern Iowa is a bit suspect to me at this time. I would not be surprised to see amounts come down on that model later Saturday.
The bottom line is there is no way of knowing which solution is correct and with the luxury of another day before any flakes would fly it is prudent to wait another day to see if we can get better model consensus. At this moment I am leaning more toward what the GFS which is showing less in the way of snow with any minor accumulations in the NW third to 1/2 of my area (especially in Iowa). See the GFS above. Stay tuned as they say and Roll weather...TS
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As you may have heard this thunderstorm is considered to be the costliest in U.S. history, that includes all tornadoes and most hurricanes (they are not in the thunderstorm category). The last two months I have researched all the meteorological aspects of the derecho and interviewed experts from the Storm Prediction Center, NOAA, and the NWS to get the inside scoop on how and why this amazing storm came to be and how it will change the warning system going forward.
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